OPEC MEETING AND NATO MEETING
The OPEC+ meeting on 5 October 2025 and the upcoming NATO Defence Ministers’ meeting on 15 October are expected to set the tone for global energy and security. While OPEC+ decided to increase its oil output, amid sliding crude prices, NATO members are expected to discuss military support for Ukraine, focusing on long-range strike capabilities that could target Russia’s energy infrastructure. These developments could impact oil market dynamics and geopolitical risks in the coming weeks.
- WHAT IS OPEC?
OPEC is an organisation that plays a major role in managing global oil supply. It states that its aim is to balance the global oil market. It consists of major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, its de facto leader, as well as many other Middle East members. In late 2016, Russia joined OPEC+ as a country that participates in OPEC decisions. Together, the cartel accounts for 40% of global supply, meaning its decisions are expected to impact oil prices.
- OPEC, MARKET SPECULATION, AND OIL PRICES
Ahead of every OPEC+ meeting, rumours and leaks tend to impact the market prices. Reuters has sources that often provide information about possible output decisions, which influences oil prices. In the week before the OPEC+ meeting, sources told Reuters that the cartel was considering adding 500,000 bpd to output over the next three months. This would represent larger monthly increases than before, raising fears that oil markets could be oversupplied. Oil prices fell over the week by 6.8%.
- OPEC+ MEETING, OCTOBER 5 OUTPUT DECISION: SAUDI VS RUSSIA
On October 5, OPEC+ met and decided to increase output by 137,000 barrels per day from November - the same rise seen over the previous two months. Differences emerged between leading players Saudi Arabia, which wanted a greater output increase, and Russia, which preferred a smaller increase, amid falling oil revenues and lower oil prices. In the end, Russia appeared to win out.
- NATO: YESTERDAY AND TODAY
NATO, a Cold War–era mutual defence alliance of Western countries, was originally created to oppose the Soviet Union. In recent years, the organisation has struggled for a purpose. President Trump questioned its usefulness to the US, but after NATO countries agreed to boost contributions, the US reaffirmed its commitment to NATO. Its major focus today is the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- NATO SUMMIT: UKRAINE / RUSSIA, HIGH UP ON THE AGENDA
The October 15 NATO meeting gathers leaders from 31 member countries, including the US and major countries in Europe, to discuss security. The meeting was scheduled, but there is a sense of urgency as some NATO countries are concerned about their own security. Russia and Ukraine will be on the agenda. NATO has provided support to Ukraine, including military aid and economic sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. The summit could see discussions on long-range weapons. Ukraine has been requesting missiles to target Russian oil and gas infrastructure, in its effort to cripple Russian energy exports. The US has said it’s considering selling long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but Germany could also decide to supply longer-range missiles to Ukraine. Tensions between NATO countries in Europe and Russia have escalated in recent weeks with suspected Russian drones reportedly entering NATO airspace in Poland, Norway, and Germany. The US appears to have abandoned previous efforts to push for a peace deal.
- OUTCOMES AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MARKETS
The OPEC meeting outcome has already lifted oil prices away from four-month lows, amid market relief. But the outcome of the NATO meeting could also influence them. It’s estimated that Russian output has already been cut by 1.1 million bpd, a figure that could rise sharply, straining the Russian budget. Russian officials have already admitted to fuel shortages. If Ukraine receives long-range weapons, Russia’s oil supply could fall further, potentially supporting oil prices.
Conclusion
The October 5 OPEC+ meeting and the NATO summit are expected to have consequences for global oil markets. OPEC+’s output decision could affect the stability of oil prices, alongside geopolitical factors. Meanwhile, NATO’s stance on military aid to Ukraine and its impact on Russian energy exports will influence economic conditions and could impact oil prices.