ALIBABA special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
CHINA E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.
ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
- EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 182% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 11.99, below the industry median of 23.10. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 25.22 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 84.02.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue could be expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
- FACT: Alibaba’s IPO price in 2014 was $68. Since its IPO the company’s annual revenue has grown over 1400% and its annual earnings have grown over 700%. Alibaba’s current price is 25% above its 2014 IPO price.
- NEWS: Alibaba Earnings Event (November 17, 2022): Alibaba reported earnings of 12.92 Yuan per share vs. 11.21 yuan per share forecast, beating analysts’ expectations. They also announced an additional $15 billion would be allocated to their existing share buyback program.
- NEWS (SINGLES DAY- November 11th, 2022): Alibaba recorded record sales of $154 billion on the famous shopping holiday smashing the prior record of $84.5 billion according to the Chinese consulting company Syntun.
- ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $134.60, according to Bloomberg. Nomura set a price target of $110 on December 1st. Macquarie set a price target of $136.50 on November 24th, 2022, and Deutsche Bank reiterated its target of $140 on November 21st.
- PRICE MOVEMENT: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 275% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020). However, the price could decline further.
(#ALIBABA), December 1, 2022
Current Price: 85.00
Alibaba |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
125.00 |
|
112.00 |
|
98.00 |
|
75.00 |
|
65.00 |
|
55.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Alibaba |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
40,000.00 |
27,000.00 |
13,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-30,000.00 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
38,317.48 |
25,864.30 |
12,453.18 |
-9,579.37 |
-19,158.74 |
-28,738.11 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
32,974.46 |
22,257.76 |
10,716.70 |
-8,243.62 |
-16,487.23 |
-24,730.85 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
53,692.00 |
36,242.10 |
17,449.90 |
-13,423.00 |
-26,846.00 |
-40,269.00 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:31 (GMT) 01/12/2022
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