Alibaba (#ALIBABA)

Special Reports - 09/05/2024

09 May, 2024

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

ALIBABA: COMPANY

ALIBABA IS THE ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19%, UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
ALIBABA IN THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) WORLD: Alibaba has showed off its generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) model (Tongyi Qianwen) (its version of the tech that powers Chabot sensation ChatGPT), and said it would be integrated into all of the company's apps in the near future. They have also invested into separate A.I. start- up, valued at 2.5 billion dollars, which specializes in social A.I.

CHINA: RECENT ECONOMIC DATA

APRIL 16: CHINA GDP (Q1) AT 5.3% (PREVIOUS 5.2%). The Chinese economy exceeded expectations in the first quarter, with growth reaching 5.3% compared to the anticipated 4.8% and, more importantly, it grew strongly than the Q4 (5.2%). That gave investors indications that recent government and monetary policy measures to support growth worked. This in turn has had positive impact on investors’ sentiment, providing support also to the Chinese stocks such as Alibaba.

ALIBABA: ANALYSIS AND EVENTS

EVENT (MAY 14, TUESDAY, PREMARKET): Q1 EARNINGS REPORT. According to Bloomberg, Alibaba is expected to report 30.35 billion dollars in revenue and net income of 3.6 billion dollars. The Earnings Per Share figure is expected to come in at $0.84. Alibaba has beaten revenue expectations 5 times over the 8 past quarters. The company has beaten earnings expectations 6 times over the past 8 quarters.
ALIBABA STOCK PRICE CHANGE SINCE A.I. EUPHORIA BEGAN (SECOND HALF OF 2022): LAST 6 QUARTERS. The table below shows that the Alibaba stock rose on average 5.16% in the period of one week before the earnings date. This could be fundamentally explained by Alibaba being involved in the A.I. platform creation and therefore expectations for positive announcements regarding the latest versions of Alibaba’s A.I. platforms.

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

ALIBABA: TECHNICAL REVIEW

ALIBABA STOCK AT ITS LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA ($60- $70). This was the fourth time to test the area. After testing the support of $70, Alibaba would tend to come back up to $120 (tested three time since February 2022).

However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Graph: Alibaba stock (2014- 2024); Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform

ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $102. JPMorgan forecasts $100. HSBC forecasts $114. Barclays forecasts $109. Citigroup forecasts $124.

#ALIBABA, May 9, 2024
Current Price:77

Alibaba	Weekly
Trend direction	UP
Resistance 3	120
Resistance 2	100
Resistance 1	85
Support 1	70
Support 2	68
Support 3	66

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

Alibaba
Pivot Points	Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
Profit or loss in $	43,000	23,000	8,000	-7,000	-9,000	-11,000
Profit or loss in €²	39,995	21,393	7,441	-6,511	-8,371	-10,231
Profit or loss in £²	34,430	18,416	6,406	-5,605	-7,206	-8,808
Profit or loss in C$²	59,109	31,616	10,997	-9,622	-12,372	-15,121

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 06:00 (GMT+1) 09/05/2024

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