Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
E-COMMERCE: THE INDUSTRY
- THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL $6.9 TRILLIONS IN 2025. The global e-commerce market is projected to be worth $6.9 trillion this year, up from $6.3 trillion in 2024, opening up further opportunities for businesses to reach new customer segments worldwide.
- E-COMMERCE SALES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW 8.4% IN 2025. This growth highlights the increasing consumer preference for online shopping. Businesses that embrace this trend now will be better equipped to thrive in a market that is rapidly moving away from traditional in-store shopping experiences.
- BY 2027, 23% OF RETAIL PURCHASES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ONLINE. By 2027, nearly a quarter of all retail purchases are projected to occur online, with the e-commerce market projected to surpass $7.9 trillion.
ALIBABA: THE COMPANY
- ALIBABA IS ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 20.1%, UK with 4.8% and Japan with 2.3%. Rest of the world covers 20.7%.
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 25.00%, while Amazon took up 7.8% of the global e-commerce market. JD.com claimed 2.1% of the market.
ALIBABA: EVENTS
- EVENT (THURSDAY, MAY 15, PREMARKET): Q1 2025 EARNINGS REPORT. Alibaba is expected to print $32.73 million in revenue for Q1 of 2025. This is an increase of 6% from the same period last year ($30.87 million). In addition, the company is expected to post Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.715, which could be an increase of around 71% from the same period last year ($1.003).
- QUARTERLY REVENUE AND EARNINGS (LAST 8 QUARTERS). Alibaba has beaten revenue expectations 5 out of the last 8 times and EPS expectations 7 out of the last 8 times.
- LAST TIME (Q4 EARNINGS RELEASED on FEBRUARY 20, 2025): Alibaba’s Q4 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching $38.89 million, an increase of 8% year-over-year, and Earnings Per Share reaching 1.76$.
- STOCK PERFORMANCE ON FEBRUARY 20, 2025: The stock rose 15.1%, from $125.36 to hit a session high of $144.30. However, the price could go in the opposite direction.
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
ALIBABA: NEWS AND EVENTS
- BREAKING (MAY 7): CHINA ANNOUNCED MORE STIMULUS AS CENTRAL BANK WILL LOWER INTEREST RATES ON MAY 8 AND MAY 15. China's central bank will lower the borrowing cost of its seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, its benchmark interest rate, by 10 basis points (bps) to 1.40%, effective May 8. Other interest rates will drop in line with the key rate. The amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), will also be cut by 50 bps from May 15, bringing the average level to 6.2% (It should release $138 billion in liquidity) (Source: Reuters).
- EVENT (SATURDAY, MAY 10): USA - CHINA ICE-BREAKING TALKS OVER TRADE IN GENEVA, SWITZERLAND. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy (Source: Reuters).
ALIBABA: PRICE ACTION
- THE STOCK HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $319.08 (October 27, 2020). The stock price currently trades around $123, and if it fully recovers from its recent all-time highs, it could offer an upside of around 159%. However, the stock price could also decline.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Benchmark Co forecasts $190. Barclays forecasts $180. Morgan Stanley forecasts $180.
#ALIBABA, May 8, 2025
Current Price: 123
|
Alibaba |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
200 |
|
|
170 |
|
|
140 |
|
|
107 |
|
|
103 |
|
|
100 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Alibaba |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
77,000 |
47,000 |
17,000 |
-16,000 |
-20,000 |
-23,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
68,213 |
41,636 |
15,060 |
-14,174 |
-17,718 |
-20,375 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
58,026 |
35,418 |
12,811 |
-12,057 |
-15,072 |
-17,332 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
106,770 |
65,171 |
23,573 |
-22,186 |
-27,732 |
-31,892 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:30 (GMT+1) 08/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.