AMERICAN AIRLINES (#AMERICAN_A) weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL AIRLINES MARKETS:
- GLOBAL AIRLINES INDUSTRY MARKET SIZE MEASURED BY REVENUE IS AROUND $785.6B IN 2022 with recorded increase of 57.6% from 2021. As of 2022 American Airlines has become largest in terms of fleet size and passengers transported, while Delta Air Lines is the largest airline company by revenue, assets value and market capitalization
- MARKET POTENTIAL: Airlines are expected to earn a global net profit of $4.7 billion on revenues of $779 billion. THE GLOBAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW with an annual rate of 25.5% in the next 5 years.
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: American Airlines Group is the largest airline company in the world by the size of its fleet and the number of employees, with $10.807B market capitalization. It is the 4th biggest airline company in the US by market capitalisation after Southwest airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines.
- TRAVEL SEASON (May - October): As the largest airline in the U.S. in terms of passengers, American Airlines should benefit as we get closer to peak travel season. According to statistics, in the last 15 years during this period, stock prices rose on average 60.8%, ranging from 10.5% up to 177.6%.
- AIR TRAVEL BOOKINGS POINTING STRONG DEMAND THIS SUMMER. Forward bookings for the May-September period are 35% higher than in the same period in 2022 (Source: airline-industry group). Asia Pacific experienced the largest jump with a 135% increase, followed by a 43% advance for the Middle East and a 40% improvement in Europe.
- CHINA REOPENING FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL: Commercial flights to and from the US to China are currently down 94% from pre-pandemic levels and recent China reopening may significantly boost international travel.
- SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS RESULTS: END OF JULY. THE COMPANY BOOSTED Q2 EARNINGS FORECAST (NEW EARNINGS PER SHARE: $1.45-$1.65; OLD EARNINGS PER SHARE $1.20 - $1.40) thanks to strong travel demand and lower fuel prices. Memorial Day air travel surpassed pre-Covid pandemic levels. The Transportation Security Administration screened 9.79 million people from Friday through Monday, which was higher than the holiday weekend in 2019.
PRICE ACTION
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Morgan Stanley has a price target of $20, Redburn Partners target $26 while JPMorgan upgraded its target from $26 to $29.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: American Airlines stock made its all-time high of $59.08 in January, 2018. The stock currently trades around $14.65 which is around 75% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 303%. However, the price could decline further.
American Airlines Group, June 6, 2023
Current Price:14.65
|
American Airlines |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
16.30 |
|
|
13.00 |
|
|
12.00 |
|
|
10.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
10,350.00 |
5,350.00 |
1,650.00 |
-1,650.00 |
-2,650.00 |
-4,150.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
9,674.93 |
5,001.05 |
1,542.38 |
-1,542.38 |
-2,477.16 |
-3,879.32 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
8,330.52 |
4,306.11 |
1,328.05 |
-1,328.05 |
-2,132.93 |
-3,340.26 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
13,884.89 |
7,177.21 |
2,213.53 |
-2,213.53 |
-3,555.07 |
-5,567.37 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 06/06/2023
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