COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 25, 2025): COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2024 ($4,914). The price has recently traded near those levels again.
- SUPPORT AREA: $5,000 - $6,000. Since early October 2025, cocoa prices have tended to find support in the $5,000–$6,000 area. The last time prices bounced off the $5,000 level (November 25, 2025), they rose to $6,457 by December 11, 2025, reaffirming this area as support.
- ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $5,210, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 148%. Although prices can fall, too.
GRAPH (DAILY): October 2024 - January 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
FUNDAMENTALS:
- SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (~42% of the world’s total) and Ghana (~25.0% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (~11.4%), Ecuador (~6,7%), and Brazil (~5.2%).
- DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (~35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (~21%), Africa (~22%), and the Americas – North and South (~18%).
EVENTS:
- EVENT (EXPECTED: THIRD WEEK OF JANUARY 2026): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (DECEMBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
- ONGOING HARVEST SEASON IN WEST AFRICA (THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA): The two largest cocoa producers are expected to continue harvesting in the first quarter of 2026, which could be a crucial indicator for cocoa supply and will therefore be closely watched by investors.
- NEXT EVENT (EASTER CHOCOLATE DEAMAND (Q1-Q2 OF 2026)): This is one of the strongest seasonal demand periods for cocoa, especially in Europe and North America. Meanwhile, companies like Nestlé, Mondelez, and Hershey and their earnings will be watched as they may signal potential demand strength, too.
NEWS:
- BREAKING NEWS (JANUARY 2026): COCOA WAS INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa’s inclusion in the index for the first time in two decades could spark upward price pressure. According to estimates by Citigroup Inc., the index may attract as much as $2 billion in investment activity in the first days following inclusion.
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 28): INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANISATION QUARTERLY BULLETIN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The ICCO quarterly report cut its global surplus estimate to 49,000 tons from a previous estimate of 142,000 tons and lowered its global production estimate to 4.69 million tons from a prior estimate of 4.84 million tons.
COCOA (#COCOA) January 12, 2026
Current Price: 5,210
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
7,000 |
|
|
6,000 |
|
|
4,500 |
|
|
4,400 |
|
|
4,300 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
27,900 |
17,900 |
7,900 |
-7,100 |
-8,100 |
-9,100 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
23,875 |
15,317 |
6,760 |
-6,076 |
-6,931 |
-7,787 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
20,710 |
13,287 |
5,864 |
-5,270 |
-6,012 |
-6,755 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
38,708 |
24,834 |
10,960 |
-9,850 |
-11,238 |
-12,625 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 12/01/2026
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.