Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- OPEC+ MEETING (NOVEMBER 30): OPEC+ MEMBERS AGREED ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION CUTS OF AROUND 900,000 BARRELS A DAY FROM JANUARY 1, 2024. Saudi Arabia said it will extend its voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels a day through Q1 of 2024, while Russia said that in addition to current export cuts of 300,000 barrels a day they will add another 200,000 barrels a day of oil export cut. Rest of the ~680,000 barrels a day cuts will be provided by other OPEC+ members. Iraq is cutting by 223,000 bpd, the United Arab Emirates by 163,000 bpd, Kuwait by 135,000 bpd, Kazakhstan by 82,000 bpd, Algeria by 51,000 bpd and Oman by 42,000 bpd. The newly agreed cuts are expected to start taking place from January 1, 2024.
- SAUDI ARABIA’S FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE RANGES BETWEEN $80 AND $88 A BARREL. According to SPGLOBAL, Saudi Arabia needs a fiscal breakeven oil price ranging between $80 and $88 a barrel, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund, Institute of International Finance and Goldman Sachs. In addition to that, the same source, earlier this year said that Russia would need a $114 a barrel fiscal breakeven oil price. FISCAL BREAKEVEN PRICE DEFINITION: According to the CFR.ORG, an oil-exporting country’s “fiscal breakeven” oil price is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget. Oil prices below this level could result in budget deficits unless government policies change.
MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS TO KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS
- SHIPPING FIRMS STOP RED SEA ROUTES AFTER ATTACKS. The world's largest shipping group, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), has announced it is diverting its ships away from the Red Sea because of an increased threat of attacks. It said that its container ship MSC PALATIUM III was attacked on Friday as it was transiting the Red Sea. There were no injuries to the crew, but the ship had been taken out of service. Its ships were being re-routed via the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. French company CMA CGM (the world's third-largest shipping company) took a similar step a day after Danish shipping giant Maersk (the world's second-biggest shipping firm) and German transport company Hapag-Lloyd suspended Red Sea journeys. The Red Sea is one the world's most important routes for oil and fuel shipments. About 17,000 ships and 10% of global trade pass through it every year. Any ship passing through Suez to or from the Indian Ocean has to come this way.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS 2024
SOURCE: Bloomberg
TECHNICAL REVIEW:
- STATISTICS: CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED THE RANGE OF $62- $70 EIGHT TIMES SINCE FEBRUARY 2021. After testing the region, Crude oil would come back up above the mark of $70, to target the $80- $90 range.
Graph (Weekly): Crude Oil (February 2021- December 2023)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Crude Oil, December 18, 2023
Current Price:71
|
Trend direction |
|
|
90 |
|
|
80 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
66 |
|
|
65 |
|
|
64 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
19,000 |
9,000 |
5,000 |
-5,000 |
-6,000 |
-7,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
17,409 |
8,247 |
4,581 |
-4,581 |
-5,498 |
-6,414 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
15,005 |
7,108 |
3,949 |
-3,949 |
-4,738 |
-5,528 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
25,426 |
12,044 |
6,691 |
-6,691 |
-8,029 |
-9,368 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 18/12/2023
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