Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• BREAKING (MAY 5): CRUDE OIL PRICES TESTED THE LEVEL OF $55.36.
• LAST TIME (APRIL 9): CRUDE OIL PRICES HIT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2021 ($55.115): Crude oil prices fell to their lowest in more than four years to hit the level of $55.115 on April 9. After testing the mark of $55.115, Crude oil prices managed to recover and hit $64.845 on April 23 (Data Source: MetaTarder 4).
• LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF $60: Crude oil price has recently tested levels below $60, which has been acting as a support area since early 2021.

GRAPH (Daily): February 2021 – May 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

OIL PRICE ANALYSIS (DRILLING NEW WELLS): U.S.A.

• LARGE FIRM PRODUCERS (ABOVE 10,000 barrels a day) NEED AN AVERAGE OF $58 A BARREL MARKET PRICE TO DRILL PROFITABLY. This is the average oil price for larger (firm) oil producers to be profitable when drilling new oil wells.
• SMALL FIRM PRODUCERS (LESS THAN 10,000 barrels a day) NEED AN AVERAGE OF $67 A BARREL MARKET PRICE TO PRFITABLY DRILL. This is the average oil price for smaller (firm) oil producers to be profitable when drilling new oil wells.
• AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PRICE ACROSS REGIONS (FOR NEW WELL DRILLING): $59 - $70. This is the average price range of oil across various regions in the US for firms to be profitable when drilling new oil wells.

Source: dallasfed.org

GEOPOLITICS:

• MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE: US PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENED SECONDARY SANCTIONS ON COUNTRIES THAT BUY IRANIAN OIL. Meanwhile, Oman, which has mediated the latest rounds of nuclear talks between Iran and the USA, said there will be delays in talks.
• U.S.A. WITHDRAWAL FROM UKRAINE - RUSSIA PEACE NEGOTIATIONS: President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
• BREAKING: E.U. PREPARES THE 17TH SANCTIONS PACKAGE AGAINST RUSSIA; WILL ASK U.S. TO JOIN AND IMPOSE 500% TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES THAT IMPORT RUSSIAN OIL. Bloomberg, which has seen a draft of the bill, said the proposed penalties would include a 500% tariff on imports from countries that purchase Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas, or uranium.

GLOBAL TRADE:

• BREAKING (APRIL 9): US PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDED RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR 90 DAYS. Until early July 2025, the US will charge countries that are part of the reciprocal tariff plan only 10%, compared to the range of up to 84% previously planned, as it gives time and space for other countries to begin and reach new trade deals with the USA. More than 90 countries have already contacted the US administration to begin talks soon. This has significantly reduced global recession fears.

EVENTS (OIL):

• TUESDAY, MAY 6 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE (API) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
• WEDNESDAY, MAY 7 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

Crude Oil, May 5, 2025
Current Price: 56.80

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 05/05/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.