CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA TO FACES FRESH SANCTIONS?
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 19): E.U. HAS PROPOSED THE 19TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. The sanction, among others, will target some of the biggest Russian oil companies and more than 100 oil shadow fleet vessels. The EU countries are expected to vote on the proposal in the next few days.
- BREAKING: GROUP-7 (Japan, France, UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, and oftentimes EU) TO PROPOSE SANCTIONS TARGETING RUSSIA'S OIL AND OTHER EXPORTS BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2025. G-7 has been urged by the USA to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the two largest Russian oil purchasers, China and India. China and India together take in more than 80% of total Russian oil exports.
RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH
- BREAKING: RUSSIA DRONES HAVE VIOLATED POLAND, ESTONIA, AND ROMANIA AIRSPACE, REDUCING HOPES FOR PEACE TALKS. According to Reuters, Donald Trump has said the US would come to the defence of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia were to attack in the future. His comments follow a number of incursions from Moscow into Nato territory. Russian drones and fighter jets have entered Estonian, Polish, and Romanian airspace, drawing international condemnation.
TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP AND CHINA PRESIDENT XI HAD AGREED TO MEET AT APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) SUMMIT IN SOUTH KOREA (OCTOBER 31- NOVEMBER 1): The two presidents held a phone call on September 19, described as positive and constructive, and agreed to meet in person at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. Progress in trade talks between the two countries could further improve the future oil demand outlook and, therefore, a positive reaction in the oil prices could be expected.
EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AREA: $61.5 - $60. Since early August, crude oil has repeatedly tested the $61.50-or-near level, with the latest move marking the fifth rejection at this zone. Oil has previously maintained a long-term support at $60, which has been in place since early 2021. The chart below shows that since early August, after testing the area near $61.50, oil prices have then recovered towards the region between $64 and $65.
GRAPH (Daily): June 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, September 23, 2025.
Current Price: 62.90
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
67.00 |
|
|
65.00 |
|
|
61.00 |
|
|
60.50 |
|
|
60.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,100 |
4,100 |
2,100 |
-1,900 |
-2,400 |
-2,900 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
6,024 |
3,479 |
1,782 |
-1,612 |
-2,036 |
-2,461 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
5,254 |
3,034 |
1,554 |
-1,406 |
-1,776 |
-2,146 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
9,815 |
5,668 |
2,903 |
-2,626 |
-3,318 |
-4,009 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:30 (GMT+1) 23/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.