EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28 AT 19:00 GMT: US FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to host a press conference at 19:30 GMT. The FED will be having its interest rate decision, with most analysts expecting the interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%. However, the FED’s forward guidance could influence the price of US dollar as the markets are still uncertain about how many times the FED will cut interest rates in 2026.
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 10): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 3.75% FROM 4.00%. The Fed cut rates again in December after the one earlier in October. In total, last year, rates have fallen from 4.50% to the current 3.75%.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK:
- THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5 AT 13:15 (GMT): EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2.15% in December and gave no indication that it will cut rates in the near future. The ECB’s stance of not cutting rates anytime soon could provide further support to EUR/USD.
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, JANUARY 30 AT 10:00 GMT: EUROZONE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q4). Eurozone GDP fell in the third quarter from 1.5% to 1.4%. If the data comes out higher than expected this could have a positive effect on European currency and give a boost to the EUR/USD. The opposite scenario is also possible.
- MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2 AT 14:45 GMT: US MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX DATA (PMI) (JANUARY). A weaker-than-expected PMI reading would signal falling factory activity in the U.S., putting negative pressure on the EUR/USD.
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JANUARY). Weaker-than-expected job growth and a higher unemployment rate could boost expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, weighing on the dollar and supporting the EUR/USD.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES: EUR/USD is trading above its key moving averages. The 20-day moving average (red) has turned higher again, signaling renewed upside momentum. The 100-day moving average (blue) continues to slope upward, reinforcing overall trend stability.
- UP-TREND SINCE NOVEMBER 2025: EUR/USD remains in a medium-term uptrend, supported by a rising long-term trendline (orange) and a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows since early 2025.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.22 in early 2026; UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026; Bank of America forecasts 1.25 during 2026; Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025– January 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, January 27, 2026
Current Price: 1.1920
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2500 |
|
|
1.2200 |
|
|
1.2050 |
|
|
1.1800 |
|
|
1.1750 |
|
|
1.1700 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
5,800 |
2,800 |
1,300 |
-1,200 |
-1,700 |
-2,200 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,866 |
2,349 |
1,091 |
-1,007 |
-1,426 |
-1,846 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
4,223 |
2,039 |
946 |
-874 |
-1,238 |
-1,602 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,933 |
3,830 |
1,778 |
-1,641 |
-2,325 |
-3,009 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:10 (GMT) 27/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit