Gasoline weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
MIDDLE EAST
- ISREAL EXPECTED TO RETALIATE AGAINST IRANIAN STRIKE: According to the most recent reports, Israel is expected to strike back at Iran in response to Iran’s attack on the nation. Israel’s retaliation is widely expected to escalate the current tensions in the Middle East, which could catalyze a wider regional war. There are serious risks of supply disruptions if this materializes, given the fundamental role of the Middle Eastern region as a global oil hub. Disruptions could likely push gasoline prices higher.
SCENARIOS: POTENTIAL OIL PRICE REACTIONS IN CASE OF MIDDLE-EAST ESCALATION
- In a “small disruption” scenario where global oil supply could be reduced by up to 2 million barrels per day, oil prices could initially increase to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
- The “medium disruption” scenario—roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003—would take up to 5 million bpd off global oil supply and could see oil prices between $109 and $121 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
- In a “large disruption” scenario—comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973—global oil supply would shrink by up to 8 million bpd and this could push prices surging between $140 and $157 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
SOURCE: WORLD BANK
POTENTIAL PRICE CHANGE FOR GASOLINE
- SMALL DISRUPTION SCENARIO – Given that expected price changes in crude oil are 3% - 13%, Gasoline prices could move from a current price of $2.77 to either $2.85 or $3.13 under this scenario.
- MEDIUM DISRUPTION SCENARIO – Given that expected price changes in crude oil are 21% - 35%, Gasoline prices could move from a current price of $2.77 to either $3.35 or $3.74 under this scenario.
- LARGE DISRUPTION SCENARIO – Given that expected price changes in crude oil are 56% - 75%, Gasoline prices could move from a current price of $2.77 to either $4.32 or $4.85 under this scenario.
*NOTE: ASSUMES 1-TO-1 PERCENTAGE PRICE IMPACT ON GASOLINE
Please note that the past performance does not guarantee future performance.
PRICE ACTION:
- GASOLINE REACHED AN ALL- TIME HIGH OF 4.3216 (June, 2022). Gasoline was last trading around $2.770, which could imply an upside of around 56% to its recent all time high of 4.3216. The price, however, could decline further.
Gasoline, April 17, 2024
Current Price: 2.7700
|
Gasoline |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3.5000 |
|
|
3.2000 |
|
|
2.8700 |
|
|
2.7000 |
|
|
2.6800 |
|
|
2.6500 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GASOLINE |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
73,000.00 |
43,000.00 |
10,000.00 |
-7,000.00 |
-9,000.00 |
-12,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
68,638.37 |
40,430.82 |
9,402.52 |
-6,581.76 |
-8,462.27 |
-11,283.02 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
58,629.83 |
34,535.38 |
8,031.48 |
-5,622.04 |
-7,228.34 |
-9,637.78 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
100,788.55 |
59,368.60 |
13,806.65 |
-9,664.65 |
-12,425.99 |
-16,567.98 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:30 (GMT+1) 17/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail