Special Report: GOLD
Date: December 5, 2021
WEEKLY TREND: UP
HISTORCIAL CHANGES IN GOLD PRICES
|
Year |
December-15 |
January-31 |
Percentage Change |
|
2014- 2015 |
$ 1,221.72 |
$ 1,283.21 |
5.03% |
|
2015- 2016 |
$ 1,060.91 |
$ 1,116.65 |
5.25% |
|
2016- 2017 |
$ 1,127.07 |
$ 1,210.97 |
7.44% |
|
2017-2018 |
$ 1,253.99 |
$ 1,345.09 |
7.26% |
|
2018-2019 |
$ 1,242.04 |
$ 1,318.84 |
6.18% |
|
2019-2020 |
$ 1,475.00 |
$ 1,589.00 |
7.73% |
|
2020-2021 |
$ 1,827.02 |
$ 1,855.52 |
1.56% |
|
2021-2022 |
$ 1,772.07 |
$ 1,797.31 |
1.42% |
|
Average Price Increase |
5.24% |
The table above tells us that gold prices historically rose in the period between December 15 and January 31. After calculating the average price changes over the same period starting 2014- 2015, we found an average increase of 5.24%.
However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
- US Inflation Data for November (December 13 at 13:30 GMT)
US INFLATION IN OCTOBER FELL TO 7.7% FROM SEPTEMBER’S 8.2%. Core Inflation came down to 6.3% from previous 6.6%. Inflation remains strong despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest attempts to reign it in with higher rates. Higher inflation usually increases demand for Gold as the asset is traditionally considered a store of value. Early estimates for November inflation point to 7.3%, down from current 7.7%.
- US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting (December 14 at 19:00 GMT)
The FED raised the rates in November, as expected, by 0.75% points to 4.00%, which is the highest rate since 2008. The FED signaled next rate hikes will be lower than previous. In December, the Fed is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points from 4.00% to 4.50%
- Central Banks Are Buying Gold
Central Banks have bought the biggest amount of Gold this year since 1967 and there is still one more quarter left. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 399 tons of bullion in the third quarter, which was nearly double the previous record for Q3.
- Analyst Opinion
BANK OF AMERICA released their 2023 market report expecting Gold prices to go up to $2,000 per ounce. The bank also expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in December 2023, after pausing with the hikes in Q1 of 2023.
Current Price:1795
|
GOLD |
Mid- Term |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2000 |
|
|
1930 |
|
|
1860 |
|
|
1740 |
|
|
1720 |
|
|
1700 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
20,500 |
13,500 |
6,500 |
-5,500 |
-7,500 |
-9,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
19,430 |
12,795 |
6,161 |
-5,213 |
-7,109 |
-9,004 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
16,717 |
11,009 |
5,300 |
-4,485 |
-6,116 |
-7,747 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
27,514 |
18,119 |
8,724 |
-7,382 |
-10,066 |
-12,751 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:35 (GMT) 05/12/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail