Gold Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS COULD ESCALATE IN APRIL: According to various reporters, tensions in the Middle East could be set to escalate, as Israel plans to invade Rafah, a city believed to be harboring the remaining Hamas militants. Furthermore, Israel has carried out a strike very close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing high ranking members of the Iranian general staff.
- ELECTION YEAR IN THE US: The United States Election Year has statistically been favorable for gold, rising on average 9.94%. According to the last five election cycles, gold prices have risen on average 9.94%, with the commodity rising 11.96% on average when Democrats win and 6.91% on average with a Republican victory.
Source: Bloomberg and MT4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
EVENTS:
- US Inflation (Wednesday, April 10th, 2024) The United States will report its CPI for March. February CPI came in at 3.2%, Year-over-Year, well below its peak of 9.1% peak in 2022. Inflation continues to trend lower, with levels approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The lower inflation should be positive for gold, as the US dollar could weaken.
- US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (May 1st, 2024): The Federal Reserve Bank will meet on May 1st to set the Fed Funds rate target. According to the most recent estimates, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the current level of 5.50%. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the Interest Rate decision at 19:30 GMT to answer potential questions and clarify the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate policy.
ANALYST OPINION
- CITIGROUP: GOLD COULD HIT $3000 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. Gold could rise 50% if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession. However, the price could also decline further. Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.
- JP MORGAN AND BANK OF AMERICA: GOLD COULD HIT $2,600 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS: Both Bank of America and JP Morgan have put a price target on gold of $2,600, with the banks suggesting that gold prices could move higher on that back of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, geopolitical instability and strong central bank gold buying trends are also seen as catalysts for the commodity.
GOLD, April 8, 2024
Current Price: 2330
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
2600 |
|
|
2400 |
|
|
2270 |
|
|
2200 |
|
|
2180 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot
|
Gold |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
67,000.00 |
27,000.00 |
7,000.00 |
-6,000.00 |
-13,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
61,864.05 |
24,930.29 |
6,463.41 |
-5,540.06 |
-12,003.47 |
-13,850.16 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
53,064.68 |
21,384.28 |
5,544.07 |
-4,752.06 |
-10,296.13 |
-11,880.15 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
91,114.31 |
36,717.71 |
9,519.41 |
-8,159.49 |
-17,678.90 |
-20,398.73 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT+1) 8/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.