Gold Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- EVACUATION IN RAFAH COMMENCES, AS ISRAEL PREPARES TO INVADE RAFAH, FURTHER ESCALATING THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE-EAST: Israel has completed preparations for its invasion of Rafah, with the latest news highlighting that the evacuation of civilians from Rafah has begun. The escalation could cause a further spike in safe haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainty.
- GOLD PRICES HAVE SHARPLY APPRECIATED SINCE EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAVE ESCALATED: Since tensions in the Middle East have begun, gold prices have moved sharply higher, with each iteration of escalation causing gold prices to move higher. With Israel’s imminent Rafah operation, gold prices could move another leg higher, with markets reacting to the escalation.
|
GOLD |
|||
|
PERIOD |
NEWS |
PRICE CHANGE % |
PRICE CHANGE $ |
|
OCTOBER 7, 2023 - DECEMBER 3, 2023 |
WAR STARTS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN- BACKED HAMAS |
17.01% |
$ 311.18 |
|
FEBRUARY 14, 2024 - MARCH 8, 2024 |
ESCALATION AS ISRAEL PREPARES A PLAN TO INVADE RAFAH |
10.24% |
$ 203.93 |
|
APRIL 1, 2024 - APRIL 12, 2024 |
ISRAEL - IRAN WAR CONFLICT WITH STATE-TO-STATE ATTACKS |
8.89% |
$ 198.53 |
NEWS SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
PRICE DATA SOURCE: META TRADER 4 PLATFORM
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
EVENTS:
- US Inflation (Wednesday, May 15th, 2024) The United States will report its CPI for April. March CPI came in at 3.5%, Year-over-Year, well below its peak of 9.1% peak in 2022. Inflation continues to trend lower, with levels approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The lower inflation should be positive for gold, as the US dollar could weaken.
ANALYST OPINION
- UBS: GOLD COULD REACH THE MARK OF $4000. UBS predicts that the price of gold may nearly double from now to 4,000 US dollars/ounce.
- CITIGROUP: GOLD COULD HIT $3000 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. Gold could rise 50% if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession. However, the price could also decline further. Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.
- BANK OF AMERICA: TARGETS $3000. Bank of America still sees owning gold as one of its top trades for 2024. Central banks are buying at an unprecedented pace, purchasing more than 2,100 tons in the past two years, thus creating strong demand.
- GOLDMAN SACHS TARGETS $2700. The bank raised the forecast for gold from $2,300 to $2,700 per ounce by year’s end.
GOLD, May 6, 2024
Current Price: 2320
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
2600 |
|
|
2380 |
|
|
2270 |
|
|
2260 |
|
|
2240 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot
|
Gold |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
68,000.00 |
28,000.00 |
6,000.00 |
-5,500.00 |
-6,000.00 |
-8,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
63,172.66 |
26,012.27 |
5,574.06 |
-5,109.55 |
-5,574.06 |
-7,432.08 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
54,109.97 |
22,280.58 |
4,774.41 |
-4,376.54 |
-4,774.41 |
-6,365.88 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
93,028.08 |
38,305.68 |
8,208.36 |
-7,524.33 |
-8,208.36 |
-10,944.48 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 6/05/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.