Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
- RUSSIA EXPECTED TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024: NORNICKEL, THE LARGEST PALLADIUM PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, TO CUT PRODUCTION IN 2024. The Russian miner said the output of the metal may fall almost 15% to as low as 2.3 million ounces. The company said that its production was down 17% year on year in Q4 of 2023.
EVENTS (CHINA): ECONOMIC DATA (MONTHLY) FOR APRIL
- TUESDAY, APRIL 30 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (APRIL) (PREVIOUS: 50.8);
- THURSDAY, MAY 9: CHINA TRADE DATA (EXPORT/ IMPORT) (APRIL) (PREVIOUS EXPORTS: -7.5%; PREVIOUS IMPORT: -1.9%);
- SATURDAY, MAY 11 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (APRIL) (PREVIOUS: 0.1%);
- FRIDAY, MAY 17 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (APRIL) (PREVIOUS: 4.5%);
EVENTS (USA):
- MAY 1 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. The US Fed will meet in early May with markets expecting the bank to start cutting interest rates in June, currently at 5.50%. The rates could come down to at least 4.75% by the end of the year.
- MAY 3 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL). Data for March came in stronger that expected (303,000 vs. 212,000 exp.), while the unemployment rate fell back to 3.8% from the previous 3.9%.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS 2024:
SOURCE: Bloomberg
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- SUPPORT AREA BETWEEN $900 AND $1000: According to the chart below, we can see that Palladium has been maintaining the support area between $900 and $1000 since November 2023.
Graph: Daily (November 2023 – April 2024)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
PALLADIUM, April 29, 2024
Current Price: 950
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1350 |
|
|
1200 |
|
|
1000 |
|
|
900 |
|
|
870 |
|
|
850 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
40,000 |
25,000 |
5,000 |
-5,000 |
-8,000 |
-10,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
37,320 |
23,325 |
4,665 |
-4,665 |
-7,464 |
-9,330 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
31,971 |
19,982 |
3,996 |
-3,996 |
-6,394 |
-7,993 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
54,697 |
34,186 |
6,837 |
-6,837 |
-10,939 |
-13,674 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:15 (GMT+1) 29/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.