PALLADIUM

Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

PALLADIUM: USE AND MARKET SHARE

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT, SUPPORTING PRICES. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has signaled that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
• STRONG AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND. Palladium is essential for catalytic converters in gasoline and hybrid vehicles. Europe’s softened approach to its 2035 combustion-engine ban allows more cars to remain on the road longer, keeping demand steady.
• MARKET DEFICIT (2025 AND 2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, expects the palladium market to remain in deficit in 2025 and 2026. Overall, the market is projected to post a deficit of around 200,000 ounces in 2025, followed by a deficit of approximately 100,000 ounces in 2026, according to Nornickel estimates.

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (DECEMBER). A stronger-than-expected PMI reading would signal improving factory activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of palladium. Rising manufacturing momentum would point to firmer industrial and automotive demand, supporting a bullish outlook for palladium prices.
• FRIDAY, JANUARY 9 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA INFLATION DATA (CPI) (DECEMBER). A stronger CPI reading would signal improving demand in China, supporting vehicle sales and industrial activity, and helping to support palladium prices.
• MONDAY, JANUARY 19 AT 02:00 GMT: CHINA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q4). Stronger-than-expected GDP growth would signal improving economic activity in China, supporting industrial output and vehicle demand, which would be positive for palladium prices.
• MONDAY, JANUARY 19 AT 02:00 GMT: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA (DECEMBER). Higher industrial output would indicate stronger manufacturing activity in China, boosting demand for vehicles and industrial use, which could support palladium prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• V-SHAPED RECOVERY AND POSITIVE MOMENTUM: As shown on the chart, palladium has formed a V-shaped recovery after establishing a long-term base near the $800–$900 area. The rebound highlights improving market sentiment and renewed interest.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1,800, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 90%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Monthly): July 2016 – December 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, December 29, 2025.
Current Price: 1,800

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:58 (GMT) 29/12/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.