Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENT
- THURSDAY, JULY 25 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q2) (first preliminary data). The US Economy grew by 1.4% in Q1 of 2024, down from Q4 of 2023 of 3.4%. If the trend continues on, the US Fed may decide to cut its benchmark interest rate. This could potentially increase silver prices.
- FRIDAY, JULY 26 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX FOR JUNE. The US will be reporting its core PCE price index for June, which is an important inflation metric that the Federal Reserve uses to determine future policy rates. Core PCE has been declining, and further declines could lead to higher rate cut probabilities, which could positively influence silver prices.
- WEDNESDAY, JULY 31 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. Federal Reserve Bank will meet on July 31, to set the Fed Funds rate target. According to the most recent estimates, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the current level of 5.50%, but chances have been rising for a September cut.
OTHER ANALYSIS:
- SILVER DEMAND: The United States remains the most important market with 22% of global demand for silver, while China represents 15% of global demand for silver (Source: Bloomberg). China's economy could potentially grow by about 5%. The US imposed 50% tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells, among the biggest industries for silver in an industrial end, to pressure output in panels throughout key factories in Asia with corporate bases in China. Investors continued to assess the demand outlook in top silver consumer China after an official report pointed to the second straight month of manufacturing downturn in June. In contrast, a private survey pointed to the fastest pace of manufacturing sector growth in three years.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- The Silver Institute forecasts global silver demand to hit 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level ever recorded. The Institute believes Gold could rise initially, followed by a rapid surge in silver prices. The report asserts that silver consistently outperforms, albeit belatedly. The Silver Institute believes that silver could potentially reach $50, but only after gold surpasses $2,200, which it already has. Therefore, a Silver wave could be possible relatively soon. Although the price could go down.
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $29.00 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 72%. However, the price could decline.
Silver, July 19, 2024
Current Price:29.00
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
50.00 |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
30.30 |
|
|
27.80 |
|
|
26.80 |
|
|
26.50 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
210,000.00 |
110,000.00 |
13,000.00 |
-12,000.00 |
-22,000.00 |
-25,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
192,887.95 |
101,036.54 |
11,940.68 |
-11,022.17 |
-20,207.31 |
-22,962.85 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
162,412.36 |
85,073.14 |
10,054.10 |
-9,280.71 |
-17,014.63 |
-19,334.81 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
287,922.60 |
150,816.60 |
17,823.78 |
-16,452.72 |
-30,163.32 |
-34,276.50 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:10 (GMT) 19/07/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.