Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER (AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI) ORDERED ATTACK ON ISRAEL (SOURCE: NEW YORK TIMES). Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Mr. Khamenei gave the order at an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Iran announced that Mr. Haniyeh had been killed, said the three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, AUGUST 1 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: The US will report its weekly initial jobless claims. Jobless claims have been rising, indicating a slowing job market. This could cause a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and may increase silver prices.
- FRIDAY, AUGUST 2 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. The US unemployment rate has recently gone up to its highest since December 2021 (4.1%). If unemployment remains as high, the Fed may have to start cutting rates sooner than later using maybe more aggressive approach. In this case, the US dollar could be expected to weaken in value.
OTHER ANALYSIS:
- SILVER DEMAND: The United States remains the most important market with 22% of global demand for silver, while China represents 15% of global demand for silver (Source: Bloomberg). China's economy could potentially grow by about 5%. The US imposed 50% tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells, among the biggest industries for silver in an industrial end, to pressure output in panels throughout key factories in Asia with corporate bases in China. Base metals got a boost after China’s leaders pledged to step up support measures and stabilize market confidence at a Politburo meeting this week.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $28.80.00 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 73%. However, the price could decline further.
Silver, August 1, 2024
Current Price: 28.80
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
45.00 |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
29.90 |
|
|
27.80 |
|
|
26.80 |
|
|
26.00 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
162,000.00 |
112,000.00 |
11,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-28,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
149,968.76 |
103,682.10 |
10,183.06 |
-9,257.33 |
-18,514.66 |
-25,920.53 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
126,633.73 |
87,549.25 |
8,598.59 |
-7,816.90 |
-15,633.79 |
-21,887.31 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
223,934.22 |
154,818.72 |
15,205.41 |
-13,823.10 |
-27,646.20 |
-38,704.68 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:10 (GMT) 01/08/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.