USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31 AT 13:30 GMT: INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. A higher-than-expected reading would signal a weakening U.S. labor market and reinforce expectations for continued FED easing into 2026. This would typically weigh on the U.S. dollar and add downside pressure on USD/JPY. This data measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week.
- FRIDAY, JANUARY 9 AT 13:30 GMT: NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (DECEMBER). A weaker than expected jobs report would point to further deterioration in the U.S. labor market, strengthening the case for additional FED rate cuts in the coming months. This would likely pressure the dollar and support further declines in USD/JPY. Last month’s payrolls increased by 64,000.
US FEDERAL RESERVE
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATES TO 3.75%. This is their third consecutive rate cut, following those on September 17 and October 29, 2025. It marks the lowest rate since September 2022. The move reflects growing concern over a weakening U.S. labor market and reinforces expectations of further policy easing. Lower U.S. interest rates put additional downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE NEW FED CHAIR IN EARLY 2026. According to Reuters, President Trump said he will announce the next Fed chair in early 2026. Kevin Hassett, who is close to Trump and supportive of lower interest rates, is seen by Bloomberg as the front-runner. This could put additional negative pressure on the US dollar.
BANK OF JAPAN
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 19): BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RAISES INTEREST RATES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades. According to Reuters, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that further rate hikes remain possible, with pace depending on future economic data. He cited strong wage growth and concerns that a weaker yen could push inflation higher. Expectations of additional BOJ tightening support yen strength and add downside pressure on USD/JPY.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG RESISTANCE: 160 - 155. This area has acted as a major resistance since April 2024. The USD/JPY has tested this area three times over the past year and a half.
- 14-WEEK RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) POINTS TO OVERBOUGHT STATUS: According to the weekly graph below, the USD/JPY could be anticipated to experience a downward correction as the 14-Week RSI has already tested its overbought threshold of 70 recently. However, USDJPY price can also change its trend.
GRAPH (Weekly): December 2023 – December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USD/JPY, December 24, 2025.
Current Price: 156.00
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
159.00 |
|
|
158.50 |
|
|
157.80 |
|
|
154.10 |
|
|
152.00 |
|
|
150.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,925 |
-1,604 |
-1,155 |
1,219 |
2,567 |
3,850 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,632 |
-1,360 |
-979 |
1,034 |
2,176 |
3,264 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,424 |
-1,187 |
-854 |
902 |
1,899 |
2,848 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,632 |
-2,193 |
-1,579 |
1,667 |
3,510 |
5,264 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:50 (GMT) 24/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.