Weekly Special Report: Gold

 

EVENTS

• FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 AT 14:45 GMT+1: U.S. SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING PMI (OCTOBER). These indicators measure business activity in the U.S. services and manufacturing sectors. Lower than expected readings could signal weaker economic growth, potentially reducing expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes and supporting gold prices.
• TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 AT 14:00 GMT+1: U.S. CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (OCTOBER). This indicator measures how confident American consumers feel about the economy. Lower than expected confidence could signal weaker consumer spending ahead, potentially supporting gold prices.

 

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28):

• AT 18:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed interest rate currently stands at 4.00%, with markets expecting that interest rates will remain unchanged at the October meeting. This could put negative pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting gold prices.
• AT 18:30 GMT+1: PRESS CONFERENCE (FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH). Investors will closely watch Warsh’s comments on inflation, the economy, and future interest rates. If Mr. Warsh continues to downplay the likelihood of future interest rate hikes, this could weigh on the US dollar and support gold prices.

 

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND GOLD PRICE ACTION:

• U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS: NOVEMBER 3, 2026. The midterm elections take place halfway through a US president’s four-year term. This year, they will be held on November 3, 2026. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate. The results will determine which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, controls each chamber of Congress for the following two years. Currently, President Donald Trump is a Republican, while Republicans hold a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 seats in the Senate.
• GOLD HAS HISTORICALLY PERFORMED STRONGLY DURING U.S. ELECTION YEARS. Since 2000, gold has risen in 10 of 13 U.S. election years, with an average gain of 11.1%.
• MIDTERM ELECTION YEARS: Gold rose in 4 of 6 midterm election years since 2000, with an average gain of 11.8%.
• WHEN DONALD TRUMP WAS INVOLVED IN ELECTIONS: Donald Trump was involved as a presidential candidate in 2016, 2020, and 2024, and was the sitting president in 2018 during the 2018 Midterm Elections. During U.S. election years involving Donald Trump, gold gained an average of 14.72%.

Data Source: Investing.com

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

CHINA GOLD PURCHASES:

• BREAKING (OCTOBER 7): CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK EXTENDS GOLD-PURCHASING STREAK TO 23 MONTHS. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by around 21 tonnes in September, the largest monthly purchase since September 2023, taking total holdings to approximately 2,196 tonnes. China continued accumulating gold despite bullion prices falling more than 6% in September, highlighting continued central-bank demand and reserve diversification.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION:

• SUPPORT AREA: $4,100 - $4,000. After recently falling, Gold is back near its strongest support area around $4,100–$4,000.
• GOLD: OCTOBER 2025 – OCTOBER 2026. Gold has tested the region between $4,100 and $4,000 on 12 occasions over the past year, repeatedly rebounding from these levels. Following these tests, Gold has rebounded to an average high of approximately $4,324, with an average price increase of around $324. Although the price could also fall.
• GOLD PRICE HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ON JANUARY 28, 2026 ($5,597.41). Gold price currently trades at around $4,120, and if it fully recovers to its previous all-time high, it could see an upside of around 36%. However, the price could also decline.

GRAPH (Daily): October 2025 – October 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

 

Gold, October 21, 2026
Current Price:  4,120

 

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 21/10/2026

 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.