Weekly Special Report: Palladium

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid vehicles, where it helps reduce harmful emissions. Automotive demand is expected to remain the main source of palladium demand in 2026, accounting for more than 80% of total demand.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia remains the largest source of global palladium supply, accounting for around 44% of global mined production. South Africa is the second-largest producer with around 37%, while Canada is third with around 8%. Zimbabwe is the fourth-largest producer, with a slightly lower than 8% market share.

PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS CONSTRAINED. Palladium supply remains under pressure, with global primary mine production expected to fall by around 2% in 2026 to approximately 6.1 million ounces, according to Nornickel. Russian production is also expected to decline to its lowest level in at least two decades.
• MARKET DEFICIT (2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, forecasts that palladium supply will remain below demand in 2026, with the market expected to record a deficit of around 100,000 ounces. This follows an estimated shortfall of approximately 200,000 ounces in 2025.

EVENTS (U.S.):

• FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (AUGUST). Investors will closely watch the U.S. labor market after July’s very weak employment data, when nonfarm payrolls (NFP) fell by 23,000. Another weak report could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting palladium prices.
• FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. INFLATION DATA (CPI) (AUGUST). Investors will closely watch U.S. inflation after the last two readings declined, from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July. Another weak report could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting palladium prices.
• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 AT 19:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at its latest meeting in July.

EVENTS (CHINA):

• TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA EXPORT AND IMPORT DATA (AUGUST) (EXPORT PREVIOUS: +23.9%; IMPORT PREVIOUS: +27.5%)
• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION (CPI) (AUGUST) (PREVIOUS: +0.5%) 
• TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 AT 03:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (AUGUST) (PREVIOUS: +4.5%)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• SUPPORT AREA: $1,200 - $1,150. The support area between $1,200 and $1,150 has been tested only a few times over the past year. Although this could indicate limited downside potential, if the price breaks below these levels, the downtrend could continue.
• UPTREND (June – September 2026): The daily chart below depicts an ongoing uptrend and an upward trend channel that has been in place since late June 2026. Overall, the palladium price rose from around $1,153 in late June to $1,487.75 by late August 2026. However, the price could also decline.
• PALLADIUM PRICE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March, 2022). Palladium prices have traded around $1,340, and if a full recovery to the previous all-time high takes place, upside potential of around 154% could be seen. However, the price could also decline.

GRAPH (Daily):  July 2025 - September 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, September 2, 2026
Current Price:  1,340

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:10 (GMT+1) 02/09/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.