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Crude Oil

Market Opportunities - 22/07/2021

22 July, 2021

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

  • OPEC+ STAND-OFF RESOLVED: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will add 400,000 barrels a day each month from August until all its halted output has been revived. They intend to bring back all 5.8 million barrels per day (currently withheld) by September of 2022.
  • OIL MARKETS EXPECTED TO STAY IN SUPPLY DEFICIT UNTIL THE END OF YEAR: An average supply deficit of about 1 million barrels a day will still persist for the rest of the year, according to OPEC+ data. Even if the group manages to make the full output hike in August, the planned 400,000 barrel-a-day boost will barely cover a quarter of the shortfall it projected for the month.
  • GOLDMAN SACHS: OPEC+ AGREEMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR OIL: An expected agreement at OPEC+ on supply would help bridge divide between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and help remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Bank views the expected agreement “as the first of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Bank maintains a summer Brent forecast at $80/bbl (Crude Oil~$77).
  • CITIGROUP: The market is very tight and a monthly supply boost of 400k b/d from OPEC+ will turn out to be a pittance (very little amount), Citigroup’s global head of commodities research, said in a Bloomberg television interview. Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over. That should push Brent oil prices into the mid-$80s (Crude Oil around 80 and even above), despite any compromise supply deal between the UAE and OPEC+, according to a note from Citigroup dated July 14.
  • BANK OF AMERICA SEES OIL PRICES AT $100 A BARREL IN 2022: Oil may surge to $100 a barrel next year as travel demand rebounds, Bank of America Corp. said. Global oil consumption will continue to outstrip supply in 2022 as the economic recovery from the pandemic boosts fuel consumption, while investment in new production is crimped by environmental concerns, the bank said in a report.

Crude Oil, July 22, 2021
Current Price: 70.00

Crude Oil

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

77.00

Resistance 2

75.50

Resistance 1

73.50

Support 1

67.00

Support 2

65.50

Support 3

63.50

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*

Crude Oil

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

7,000.00

5,000.00

3,500.00

-3,000.00

-4,500.00

-6,500.00

Profit or loss in €**

5,941.92

4,244.23

2,970.96

-2,546.54

-3,819.81

-5,517.50

Profit or loss in £**

5,097.73

3,641.24

2,548.87

-2,184.74

-3,277.11

-4,733.61

Profit or loss in C$**

8,799.28

6,285.20

4,399.64

-3,771.12

-5,656.68

-8,170.76

* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:00 a.m. (GMT+1) 22/07/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details

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