Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- OMICRON COVID-19 VARIANT APPEARS LESS SEVERE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. Most recent data showed that the Omicron variant produces only mild symptoms and does not require a specific medical treatment, as hospitalization and death rates remain low. This could encourage governments across the world to ditch plans for tougher restrictions or lockdown measure, which in return, could keep demand for oil strong. This may support the oil prices going forward.
- OPEC+ FAILS TO INCREASE OIL SUPPLY ACCORDING TO ITS POLICY DUE TO LACK OF CAPACITY. Evidence continues to mount that OPEC and Russia don't have the capacity to continue to add 400k bpd each month. They have not invested enough in oil maintenance capex for a number of years. With stronger demand coming, this situation could lead to a structural undersupply going forward. In December, OPEC’s members added just 166,000 barrels a day, compared with a target of 250,000 a day.
- GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY DEFICIT SEEN IN DECEMBER 2021: The Energy Information Administration (EIA= US Government) said that global demand was at 101.08 million barrels per day in December, while oil supply stood at 98.27 million barrels per day in December.
- RECENT MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS: Earlier this week, Yemen’s Houthi fighters claimed to have launched a drone strike on the United Arab Emirates (the third biggest OPEC producer) that caused an explosion and fire on the outskirts of the capital Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, a key pipeline running from Iraq to Turkey was hit by an explosion. The pipeline hit by the blast is an important route bringing oil from northern Iraq to Europe through Turkey’s Mediterranean port at Ceyhan, transporting more than 450,000 barrels a day last year.
- ANALYST OPINION: OIL PRICES STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE $100 MARK. JPMorgan sees Oil at $125 in 2022 and $150 in 2023 (due to capacity-led shortfalls in OPEC+ production). Bank of America sees Oil at $120 by the end of June 2022. Goldman Sachs says Oil could hit $100 in 2022 and $105 in 2023. COMMENTS (RUSSIA): President Putin said that oil could hit the mark of $100. The Iraqi Oil Minister also said that oil could hit $100 in Q1 2022. Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, said oil prices may rise to as high as $120 by the middle of next year as the ability of OPEC+ to meet demand is at risk from under-investments and sanctions.
Crude Oil, January 19, 2022
Current Price: 85.00
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100.00 |
|
|
95.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
80.10 |
|
|
78.20 |
|
|
76.60 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,000.00 |
10,000.00 |
5,000.00 |
-4,900.00 |
-6,800.00 |
-8,400.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €** |
13,222.03 |
8,814.69 |
4,407.34 |
-4,319.20 |
-5,993.99 |
-7,404.34 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
11,029.41 |
7,352.94 |
3,676.47 |
-3,602.94 |
-5,000.00 |
-6,176.47 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
18,722.10 |
12,481.40 |
6,240.70 |
-6,115.89 |
-8,487.35 |
-10,484.38 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 19/01/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details