Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- OPEC+ MEETING OUTCOME SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER OIL PRODUCTION INCREASES MIGHT BE UNLIKELY (Wednesday, AUGUST 3). The group decided to go for an increase in oil production in September by 100,000 barrels a day, which is a very insignificant amount. In addition, the OPEC+ statement said that they are facing limited capacity, which is a signal that further supply increases are very unlikely. NEXT OPEC+ MEETING: September 5. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continued to underdeliver on oil production increases as many OPEC+ oil producers face limited production capacity. According to Reuters, the 10 OPEC members are pumping far less than called for under the deal. OPEC compliance with pledged cuts was 253% in June, the survey found, up from 178% in May.
- NEWS: EU AGREED TO BAN 90% OF RUSSIAN OIL TO THE EU. European Union leaders agreed in principle on to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year. The embargo would encompass 90% of all imports from Russia once Poland and Germany, which are also connected to the pipeline, stop buying it by the end of the year. Two thirds of the Russian oil imported by the EU comes via tanker and one third by the Druzhba pipeline. The embargo on seaborne oil imports would therefore apply to 2/3 of all oil imported from Russia.
- EVENT: SHANGHAI, BEIJING (CHINA) REOPENING FROM COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS IN Q3 TO INCREASE OIL DEMAND. As the Chinese economy reopens in the third quarter of 2022, China could be expected to recover some oil demand lost during the second quarter due to lockdowns, which at one point amounted to 1.5 million barrels a day.
- CRUDE OIL HAS HAD STRONG SUPPORT AREA OF $95-$100 SINCE THE START OF THE UKRAINE- RUSSIA WAR. Since the start of the war (February 24, 2022), crude oil has breached below that area four times, and it would recover above it three times. The fourth time has occurred earlier this week.
- OIL PRICES STILL EXPECTED TO TRADE ABOVE THE $100 MARK: JPMorgan sees oil at $175 at the end of the year. JPMorgan also laid two scenarios that could see oil at $380 or $190. First scenario, if Russia cuts their oil output by 5 million barrels, the oil prices could jump to $380. Second scenario, if Russia cuts their oil output by 3 million barrels, the oil prices could jump to $190.
Goldman Sachs predicts oil at $140 a barrel in Q3 with expectations for a 2 million barrel per day of deficit. Morgan Stanley kept its Price Target to $110 for Q3. Barclays said prices in its worst case scenario could top $200 a barrel.
Crude Oil, August 4, 2022
Current Price: 90.13
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
110 |
|
|
105 |
|
|
97 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
84 |
|
|
83 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
19,870.00 |
14,870.00 |
6,870.00 |
-5,130.00 |
-6,130.00 |
-7,130.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
19,526.53 |
14,612.96 |
6,751.25 |
-5,041.32 |
-6,024.04 |
-7,006.75 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
16,334.68 |
12,224.30 |
5,647.67 |
-4,217.26 |
-5,039.34 |
-5,861.41 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
25,515.07 |
19,094.57 |
8,821.77 |
-6,587.43 |
-7,871.53 |
-9,155.63 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:50 (GMT+1) 04/08/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail