USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 27 AT 13:15 GMT: U.S. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (WEEKLY). This report provides an early view of U.S. private sector hiring. Employment has been weakening in recent months, and another soft ADP reading would reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts, keeping pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 27 AT 15:00 GMT: U.S. CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (JANUARY). This indicator measures how confident U.S. consumers feel about the economy and their personal finances, making it an important signal for future spending. The last two readings came in below expectations, pointing to softer demand. Another weak print would add negative pressure on the U.S. dollar and support further downside in USD/JPY.
US FEDERAL RESERVE
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28 AT 19:00 GMT: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. Markets will focus on the Fed’s statement and guidance for clues on future policy. Any signals of a more supportive view toward growth or openness to further easing would likely pressure the U.S. dollar and support further downside in USD/JPY.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CUTS INTEREST RATES TO 3.75%. This is their third consecutive rate cut, following those on September 17 and October 29, 2025. It marks the lowest rate since September 2022. The move reflects growing concern over a weakening U.S. labor market and reinforces expectations of further policy easing. Lower U.S. interest rates put additional downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP CLOSE TO NAMING NEW FED CHAIR (JANUARY 2026). According to Reuters, President Donald Trump said this week that he is close to choosing the next Federal Reserve chair, stating he is “down to maybe one” candidate in his mind. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that several finalists have already been interviewed, with an announcement expected later this month. The prospect of a Fed chair more supportive of lower interest rates could add further downside pressure on the U.S. dollar.
BANK OF JAPAN
- BREAKING (JANUARY 23): BOJ MAINTAINS INTEREST RATES AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADES (0.75%). The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, its highest level in more than 30 years, in a widely expected decision. Markets focused on the BOJ’s guidance rather than the rate hold itself. Expectations of further normalization support the yen and add downside pressure on USD/JPY.
- BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD (JANUARY 23): According to Reuters, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if their economic and price forecasts materialize, adding that the pace and timing will depend on incoming economic data. Ueda noted that a weaker yen could push up import prices and inflation, as companies are becoming more willing to pass on higher costs through prices and wages. This reinforces expectations of additional tightening in the coming months, which supports the yen and adds downside pressure on USD/JPY.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG RESISTANCE: 160 - 155. This area has acted as a major resistance since April 2024. The USD/JPY has tested this area three times over the past year and a half.
- 14-WEEK RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) POINTS TO OVERBOUGHT STATUS: According to the weekly graph below, the USD/JPY could be anticipated to experience a downward correction as the 14-Week RSI has already tested its overbought threshold of 70 recently. However, the USDJPY price can also change its trend.
GRAPH (Weekly): December 2023 – January 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USD/JPY, January 23, 2026
Current Price: 158.1
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
161.00 |
|
|
160.50 |
|
|
160.00 |
|
|
156.00 |
|
|
155.00 |
|
|
154.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,835 |
-1,519 |
-1,202 |
1,329 |
1,962 |
2,595 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,563 |
-1,294 |
-1,024 |
1,132 |
1,671 |
2,210 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,358 |
-1,124 |
-890 |
983 |
1,452 |
1,920 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,530 |
-2,094 |
-1,658 |
1,832 |
2,705 |
3,577 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT) 23/01/2026
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit