Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- EVENT: OPEC+ MEETING (October 5, Wednesday at 12:30 GMT+1): OPEC+ is expected to cut oil production and rumors say that the cut could be higher than 1 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia could go for voluntary, unilateral oil production cuts.
SAUDI ARABIA, de facto OPEC LEADER, MAINTAINS A FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE OF AROUND $80 A BARREL. DEFINITION: An oil-exporting country’s “fiscal breakeven” oil price is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget. Oil prices below this level could result in budget deficits unless government policies change.
- GEOPOLITICS: RISING TENSIONS IN UKRAINE- RUSSIA WAR CONFLICT: Russia formally annexed four Russia-occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions (15% of Ukrainian territory) of Ukraine at a Kremlin ceremony on Friday (September 30). MEANWHILE (OCTOBER 4): Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian defenses in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, seizing back more territory in areas annexed by Russia and threatening supply lines for its troops.
- G-7 GROUP AGREED TO IMPOSE PRICE CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL (TO START IN EARLY DECEMBER): The G7 (Group of Seven) consists of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. The introduction of a price cap on Russian oil means countries that sign up to the policy will only be permitted to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products transported via sea that are sold at or below the price cap.
- EU AGREED AND APPROVED TO BAN 90% OF RUSSIAN OIL TO THE EU (TO START IN EARLY DECEMBER). European Union leaders agreed to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year. The embargo would encompass 90% of all imports from Russia once Poland and Germany, which are also connected to the pipeline, stop buying it by the end of the year.
- US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE (SPR) OIL RELEASES TO END IN NOVEMBER, but amount of SPR releases remains unchanged. The decision coincides with November 8 Midterm elections in the USA. With that, the US will stop supplying the oil markets with extra 1 million barrels a day.
- ANALYST OPINION: Q4 PRICE EXPECTATIONS (UPDATED VIEW): JPMORGAN forecasts $101. GOLDMAN SACHS forecasts $100. MORGAN STANLEY forecasts $95. UBS forecasts $110 a barrel by the end of 2022.
Crude Oil, October 4, 2022
Current Price: 83.60
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100.00 |
|
|
95.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
77.50 |
|
|
76.00 |
|
|
75.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
16,400 |
11,400 |
6,400 |
-6,100 |
-7,600 |
-8,600 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
16,603 |
11,541 |
6,479 |
-6,176 |
-7,694 |
-8,707 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
14,373 |
9,991 |
5,609 |
-5,346 |
-6,661 |
-7,537 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
22,273 |
15,482 |
8,692 |
-8,284 |
-10,322 |
-11,680 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:45 (GMT+1) 04/10/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail