EXXONMOBIL (#EXXONMOBIL) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL OIL & GAS INDUSTRY:
-
GLOBAL OIL MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH TO DATE. According to analysts, the global oil sector has grown from ~$3.0t to ~$6.8t between 2019 and March 2022. This represents a growth value of 66% over that time frame.
-
THE OIL MARKET IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY ~51% BY 2026. According to Analysts, the oil industry is expected to grow to ~$10.3t by 2026. This represents an ~11.1% compounded annual growth rate from the 2022 levels.
THE U.S OIL & GAS MARKET:
-
US OIL & GAS HAS SHOWN STRONG GROWTH: The U.S oil and gas sector has shown strong growth. The sector’s Market Cap grew from ~$875b to ~$2.1t between June 2020 - June 2022. This represents a total growth of ~140% and a compounded annual growth of ~55%.
-
SECTOR GROWTH TO CONTINUE: According to analysts, the oil and gas sector earnings are expected to grow. Growth is anticipated to be 11% annually over the next five years.
EXXONMOBIL:
-
THE COMPANY: ExxonMobil is the largest oil and gas company in the US by market capitalization, worth 362.7 billion dollars. ExxonMobil’s operations include exploration and production of oil, gas, electric power generation along with coal and mineral operations.
-
EXXONMOBIL DEMONSTRATES STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH: ExxonMobil has grown its net income from ~$14.34b in 2019 to ~$23.04b at year end 2021. This represents a 60% increase in Net Income. Revenue grew from ~$255b in 2019 to ~$276b in 2021. This represents an increase of ~8.2%.
-
EXXONMOBIL HOLDS SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE IN THE GLOBAL OIL AND GAS SECTOR: According to statistics, ExxonMobil is the third largest oil and gas company by revenue. The company holds 9.8% market share, with only Sinopec (14.04%) and PetroChina 13.6% holding a larger share.
-
EXXONMOBIL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE US OIL AND GAS: Exxon currently dominates the US oil and gas sector by market share. Exxon holds 29.9% of the market, while Chevron holds 17.2% and Marathon holds 13.2% respectively.
EVENTS AND ANALYSIS:
-
EXXONMOBIL STOCK TRADES IN POSITIVE CORRELATION WITH OIL: Since oil prices increased from $75 a barrel in December 2021 to price of above $100 today (~46% increase), ExxonMobil share price increased from ~$61 to a record high of $104.59 in June 2022 (~71% increase).
-
OIL PRICES STILL EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED: Goldman Sachs increased Q3 estimate to $140 a barrel, up from previous $125. Morgan Stanley Q3 estimate stands at $130. But their bull case forecasts $150. JPMorgan said oil prices can go to 175 and beyond by year end. Bank of America sees oil at $200 as the EU imposes an oil embargo on Russia. Barclays said prices in its worst case scenario could top $200 a barrel. Meanwhile, Russia ‘s oil minister Alexander Novak said that oil prices could hit $150 a barrel and more by the end of the year.
-
Q2 EARNINGS REPORT (EXPECTED JULY 29, 2022): ExxonMobil is set to report Q2 revenue and earnings on the 29th of July, 2022. Analysts estimate revenue will be $98.0b and EarningsPerShare is forecasted to print $3.03. ExxonMobil has beaten revenue estimates 5 out of the last 8 quarters. EarningsPerShare forecasts have beaten 6 out of the last 8 quarters.
-
STOCK PRICE ACTION: ExxonMobil stock price reached a record high of $104.59 in June 2022. Since then the stock price fell ~18%, trading at $85.84. If a full recovery follows, there could be a potential upside of 21.84%.
-
ANALYST OPINION: Goldman Sachs forecasts $117. Barclays forecasts $111. Credit Suisse recently upgraded their forecast from $115 to $125.
EXXONMOBIL(#EXXONMOBIL), June 21, 2022
Current Price: 91.00
|
Exxon |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
125.00 |
|
|
117.00 |
|
|
105.00 |
|
|
80.00 |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
60.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Exxon |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
34,000.00 |
26,000.00 |
14,000.00 |
-11,000.00 |
-21,000.00 |
-31,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
30,954.68 |
23,671.22 |
12,746.04 |
-10,014.75 |
-19,119.07 |
-28,223.38 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
25,754.65 |
19,694.73 |
10,604.86 |
-8,332.39 |
-15,907.28 |
-23,482.18 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
42,687.68 |
32,643.52 |
17,577.28 |
-13,810.72 |
-26,365.92 |
-38,921.12 |
-
1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
-
Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:35 (GMT+1) 21/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
-
You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
-
Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail