CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

NATURAL GAS

Market Opportunities - 04/08/2022

04 August, 2022

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:

  • LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
  • LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
  • CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
  • E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
  • RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.

US HURRICANE SEASON (June 1 to November 30):

  • RECENT HISTORY SHOWS THAT HURRICANES IMPACT THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES:
  1. HURRICANE “IDA” (August 26, 2021): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $3.943 TO $6.310 (+60.00%) WITHIN A MONTH. Ida's ferocious winds and storm surge made a direct hit on Port Fourchon, the nation's most important hub for the offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico.
  2. HURRICANE “DELTA” (October 4, 2020): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $2.485 TO $3.391 (+36.05%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Delta shut most US offshore oil and gas output in 15 years.
  3. HURRICANE “IKE” (September 1, 2008): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $5.440 TO $7.186 (+32.10%) WITHIN A MONTH.
  4. HURRICANE “KATRINA” (August 26, 2005): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $9.190 TO $14.750 (+60.50%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S. refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.

*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

CURRENT:

FREEPORT LNG (AUGUST 3), which was shut down in June after a blast, WILL RESUME OPERATIONS IN EARLY OCTOBER AT ALMOST FULL CAPACITY. That would boost demand for natural gas by nearly 2 billion cubic feet a day, equivalent to roughly 2% of the natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas remaining on track to return to service in early October.

BREAKING NEWS (JULY 26): RUSSIA CUTS NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE VIA NORD STREAM 1 TO 20% FROM PREVIOUS 40% OF CAPACITY. The Russian gas export monopoly, Gazprom, said it was halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines due to the “technical condition of the engine”, cutting daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic meters a day – about 20% of the pipeline’s capacity. Nord Stream, which opened in 2011, is the most important pipeline for Russian gas to the EU. It supplied nearly 55 billion cubic meters of gas in 2021 (40% of Total Natural Gas from Russia).

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE U.S. TO KEEP DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS HIGH. Hot temperatures across the US are now expected through August 1- August 7.

BREAKING NEWS (June 23): GERMANY TRIGGERED THE “ALARM STAGE” of its emergency plan in response to falling Russian natural gas supplies. The second "alarm stage" of a three-stage emergency plan means authorities see a high risk of long-term supply shortages. It includes a clause allowing utilities to immediately pass on high prices to industry and households.

PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Meanwhile, Natural Gas has fallen around 20% over the past 10 days from $9.4 to $7.5. Natural gas trades currently around 8.3, and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 89%.

NATURAL GAS, August 4, 2022
Current Price: 8.23

NATURAL GAS

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

10.80

Resistance 2

10.00

Resistance 1

9.37

Support 1

7.40

Support 2

6.90

Support 3

6.60

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $²

25,700.00

17,700.00

11,400.00

-8,300.00

-13,300.00

-16,300.00

Profit or loss in €²

25,222.54

17,371.16

11,188.21

-8,145.80

-13,052.91

-15,997.17

Profit or loss in £²

21,122.01

14,547.07

9,369.30

-6,821.51

-10,930.85

-13,396.45

Profit or loss in C$

33,015.51

22,738.31

14,645.01

-10,662.60

-17,085.85

-20,939.80

1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:05 (GMT+1) 04/8/2022

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.

· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one

· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details

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