NIO (#NIO) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
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MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market should be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
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CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market. Tesla is the largest EV in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%), BYD (~10%) and NIO with 2.7%.
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CHINA’S EV MARKETS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 61.76% in 2022 TO 5.5 MILLION VEHICLES. Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 6.5 million to 9.75 million units in 2022, which is an increase of around 50%. In China, the estimates say that around 25 million cars in total will be sold. The EV would make up around 20% of the total car markets.
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
NIO:
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THE COMPANY: Nio offers electric vehicles and parts and provides battery charging services. It currently sells the ES8 and ES6 electric SUVs, and a new EC6 electric crossover. In early January 2021 they revealed their new sedan ET7 that will be selling in 2022. On December 18, 2021, they revealed a cheaper sedan ET5, and they plan soon to announce a new model, that of ES7. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
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EVENT: PRODUCT LAUNCH EVENT (VIRTUALLY) - JUNE 15. The company introduced its brand new model ES7 which is the only model to use the Nio Technology 2.0 platform. The version with 150kWh batteries allows it to reach the range of 850 km in a single charge.
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Shanghai will subsidize Pure EV purchases with 10,000 YUAN (~$1500) per unit until the end of 2022.
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NIO has been added to HANG SENG TECH INDEX and HANG SENG COMPOSITE INDEX on June 13.
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NIO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 4.34% OF THE GLOBAL EV MARKET BY 2025 (UP FROM 1.78% IN 2021). Revenue outlook rises from 2021’s $5.14 billion to $24.67 billion in 2025 per year (increase of 379%).
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DEUTSCHE BANK expects Nio to enter a robust product cycle and production to rise from 7,000 in May to 25,000 a month by the end of 2022. The bank expects deliveries to reach 160,000 in 2022 and 320,000 in 2023.
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Jefferies analysts said demand for electric vehicles “remains strong” and it raised its outlook to 11% and 14% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, up from 10% and 13%.
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NIO CAR SALES TO GROW ON AVERAGE 52.30% ANNUALLY BETWEEN 2022 AND 2025. Nio delivered 91,429 vehicles in 2021, and that number is expected to jump to at least 469,687 in 2025.
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ANALYST OPINION: Mizuho target is at $55, Barclays forecasts at $34 a share. JP Morgan targets $30 a share. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $56 a share. Deutsche Bank target is at $45.
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STOCK PRICE ACTION: NIO stock made its all-time high of $66.85 in January, 2021 and since then fell 67.6%. The stock currently trades around $22. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 204.5%.
NIO, June 21, 2022
Current Price: 22.00
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NIO |
Weekly |
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Trend direction |
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|
36.00 |
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|
32.00 |
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|
27.50 |
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|
16.50 |
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|
14.50 |
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|
13.30 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $2 |
14,000.00 |
10,000.00 |
5,500.00 |
-5,500.00 |
-7,500.00 |
-8,700.00 |
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Profit or loss in €2 |
13,245.16 |
9,460.83 |
5,203.46 |
-5,203.46 |
-7,095.62 |
-8,230.92 |
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Profit or loss in £2 |
11,378.23 |
8,127.31 |
4,470.02 |
-4,470.02 |
-6,095.48 |
-7,070.76 |
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Profit or loss in C$ |
18,074.28 |
12,910.20 |
7,100.61 |
-7,100.61 |
-9,682.65 |
-11,231.87 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:42 (GMT+1) 21/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail