CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Palladium

Market Opportunities - 30/06/2022

30 June, 2022

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Palladium weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

  • Palladium is mostly used in catalytic convertors by car industry to reduce harmful gas emission, while tightening regulation is forcing auto makers to put more of Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep demand outlook positive. Palladium has been also used in fuel cells to generate power.

  • MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.

  • MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

  • EXPECTATIONS FOR PALLADIUM (2022): The global auto industry is expected to increase demand for Palladium by 8.5% from 8.2 to 8.9 million ounces. Meanwhile, China is expected to increase demand for Palladium to record high of more than 2.5 million ounces in 2022.

RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR AND RUSSIA AGAINST THE WEST ECONOMIC WAR:

  • RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR: President Vladimir Putin announced an attack on Ukraine on February 24, days after he recognized two breakaway regions of Russia’s neighbor as independent. Attacks are occurring in Kyiv, Odessa, Mariupol and other locations in Ukraine. Russia faced tough sanctions by the EU and the US and other allies, which brought the country to the brink of sovereign debt default.

  • BREAKING NEWS (APRIL 8): THE LARGEST PALLADIUM AND PLATINUM MARKET IN THE WOLRD SUSPENDS DELIVERY OF RUSSIAN REFINED PALLADIUM AND PLATINUM. This could limit the access to the Palladium and Platinum market, which has been already under pressure due to Russia- Ukraine war and it could result in higher Palladium and Platinum prices. Russia is the second largest Platinum producer in the world providing around 12% of global supply and the largest Palladium producer in the world providing around 45% of global supply.

ANALYSIS:

  • EVENTS (STARTING JUNE): SHANGHAI (CHINA) REOPENING FROM COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS. Shanghai is a large finance and industrial center in China, which hosts a lot of auto factories that have reopened for operation in early June of 2022. Therefore, what was lost in terms of demand over the past six to eight weeks, will be soon recovered.

  • G-7 COUNTRIES US, UK, JAPAN, CANADA DECIDED TO BAN GOLD IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA. The risk grew that countries could target next other markets like Copper, Nickel and Palladium.

  • TECHINCAL ANALYSIS: PALLADIUM SEES STRONG SUPPORT AT $1800. Since November 2019, Palladium has found strong support at $1800. It had tested the level of $1800 only four times, and every time would manage to rebound.

  • RECENT PRICE ACTIONS: PALLADIUM HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 48% OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS (FROM ALL- TIME HIGH OF $3409 TO $1752). Palladium tested levels below 1800. Palladium currently trades above 1900, and if a full recovery followed to its recent all- time, this could be an upside of around 77%.

  • ANALYST OPINION: Commerzbank forecasts $2100.

Palladium, June 30, 2022
Current Price: 1850

Palladium

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

2480

Resistance 2

2250

Resistance 1

2090

Support 1

1780

Support 2

1710

Support 3

1650

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

Palladium

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

55,000.00

32,000.00

16,000.00

-15,000.00

-22,000.00

-28,000.00

Profit or loss in €2

52,628.05

30,619.96

15,309.98

-14,353.11

-21,051.22

-26,792.46

Profit or loss in £2

45,256.32

26,330.95

13,165.47

-12,342.63

-18,102.53

-23,039.58

Profit or loss in C$2

70,994.55

41,305.92

20,652.96

-19,362.15

-28,397.82

-36,142.68

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:40 (GMT+1) 30/06/2022

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one

  • Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail

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