- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June (July 1st at 15:00 GMT+1)
ISM Manufacturing PMI previous print was 48.5. The number was lower than the expected 49.3.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (June) (July 3rd at 13:30 GMT+1)
The previous month had unemployment at 4.2%. Nonfarm Payrolls for the previous month printed 139,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Trump ‘Big Beautiful’ Tax Bill (July 4 deadline)
Trump’s tax bill successfully passed its first hurdle in the House on May 22nd. But the Bill must still be passed by the Senate. The bill outlines a cut of corporate taxes from 21% to 15%, The bill also lifts the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. President Trump expects for the bill to be on his desk for signing by July 4th, Independence Day.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks, US Dollar, Crude Oil and Gold
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision (July 8th at 04:30 GMT+1)
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates and it's likely that rates will remain unchanged, but there is a solid possibility of another rate cut of 25 basis points. The current level is 3.85% after a cut of 25 basis points in May.
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
- US reciprocal tariff 90-day suspension on EU deadline (July 9th)
US reciprocal tariffs suspension of 90 days on multiple countries including EU is to end on July 9th. There is a danger that if no significant trade progress is achieved, the US will reimpose reciprocal tariffs. The US was previously unhappy with progress with EU talks and threatened to increase tariffs to 50% on May 23rd, only to backtrack to the original July 9th deadline.
Possible Influence: Volatile US and European Stocks, Gold, EURUSD, CADUSD, Copper, Natural Gas, Crude Oil
- US Inflation (CPI) data (June) (July 15th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Top-line CPI for May came in at 2.4%, slightly less than expected. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 2.8%, Year-over-Year in May.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Retail Sales in the US for (June) (July 17th at 13:30 GMT+1)
Month-over-Month Retail Sales was at -0.9% in May, which was lower than -0.6% expected.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting (July 24th at 13:15 GMT+1)
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. Rates are currently at 2.15% after a rate cut of 25 basis points in June. It's likely that rates will remain unchanged this month.
Possible Influence: Volatile Eurodollar, Gold
- Bank of Japan Meeting (July 30th at 04:00 GMT+1)
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. In June the bank kept interest rates at 0.50%. Rates are expected to remain at this level in July, but a hike is likely later this year.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
- Bank of Canada Meeting (July 30th at 14:45 GMT+1)
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently 2.75% after the bank cut interest rates in March by 25 basis points. The bank is more likely to keep rates at 2.75%, but there is a chance of a 25 basis point cut in July.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
- Federal Reserve meeting and press conference (July 30th at 19:00 GMT and 19:30 GMT)
The Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. The Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.50%, after a 25-basis point cut in December. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 4.50% at this meeting, but there is a possibility of a rate cut of 25 bps in July, or a greater possibility of a cut in September.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Stocks, Gold
- Company Q2 Earnings Season (July-August)
The 2nd Quarter earnings season kicks off in July, with the banks starting off.
Of the major companies, JP Morgan (July 15th), Goldman Sachs (July 16th), Bank of America (July 16th), Netflix (July 17th) and Tesla (July 23rd) are expected to declare their earnings.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks