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June 2021 EVENTS - 31/05/2021

Micro Analysis

31 May, 2021

For General Information only. Not Intended to Provide Trading or Investment Advice. Your Capital is at Risk.

  • OPEC and Non OPEC Ministerial Meeting (June 1st) and OPEC Meeting (June 24)

OPEC+ will discuss whether to maintain the current deal which plans to ease production cuts to 5.8 million bpd from May to July.

Possible Influence: Volatile Brent and Crude Oil (WTI) prices

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) (June 1st at 15:00 GMT+1)

April’s PMI printed at 60.7. The consensus forecast for April is 60.8.

Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 1st at 5:30 GMT+1)

Current rates in Australia are 0.10%. The bank is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Possible Influence: Volatile AUDUSD

  • U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (May) (June 4th at 13:30 GMT+1)

The Unemployment rate for April was 6.1%. It is expected to fall to 5.9% in May. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to print up 621,000 for May, a big increase over April’s figure of 266,000.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • Presidential Election Runoff in Peru (June 6th)

Peru will hold a runoff election on June 6th to choose a new President. The candidates are polar opposites, one representing the right wing and the other being a socialist. The right wing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, if she prevails, has plans to charge mining companies more fees.

Possible Influence: Volatile Copper

  • Bank of Canada Meeting (June 9th at 16:00 GMT+1)

The current rate is 0.25% and is expected to remain the same.

Possible Influence: Volatile USDCAD

  • Inflation data in US (May) (June 10th at 13:30 GMT+1)

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 0.9%, Month-over-Month in May. CPI for May was 0.8%, Month-over-Month. May’s numbers are expected to come in at 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (June 10th at 13:45 GMT+1)

ECB set to meet to discuss interest rates. No change in deposit rate expected currently at -0.50%.

Possible Influence: Volatile Euro

  • G7 Summit (June 11th - June 13th)

Meeting of top international and EU leaders to meet in the UK for the first time since 2019. Global leaders including newly elected President Biden should discuss the global pandemic, trade and taxation policy and events of geopolitical importance.

Possible Influence: Gold, US Stocks, US Dollar

  • Retail Sales in US (May) (June 15th at 13:30 GMT+1)

Retail Sales were flat at 0.0%, Month-over-Month, in April. They are forecast to rise 0.5%, Month-over-Month in May.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 16th at 19:00 GMT+1)

The Fed meets to discuss interest rates which are expected to remain at current levels of 0.25%, but investors will be watching out for talk about future rate movements or possible tapering in the coming months.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • Bank of Japan Meeting (June 18th at 00:30 GMT+1)

Current rates are -0.10%. The BoJ is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Possible Influence: Volatile USDJPY

  • Presidential Elections in Iran (June 18th)

Iranians will go to the polls on June 18th. Their choice for President could effect whether or not the sanctions are lifted and their ability to legally sell oil in the international market.

Possible Influence: Volatile Brent and Crude Oil (WTI) prices

  • Lifting of covid lockdown restrictions in the United Kingdom and the European Union (June 21st)

If health conditions remain stable, the UK is expected to lift the last of its pandemic restrictions on June 21st. This could provide a boost to the UK economy.

Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound, UK Stocks

  • Bank of England Meeting (June 24 at 12:00 GMT+1)

Bank of England expected to leave rates unchanged at their current rate of 0.10%.

Possible Influence: Volatile GBPUSD

  • US GDP Growth Rate 1st Quarter, 3rd reading (June 24th at 13:30 GMT+1)

The third and final revision of the U.S. GDP for the 1st Quarter will be posted on June 24th. The second revision was 6.4%, Quarter-over-Quarter.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • US EARNINGS SEASON (June)

The June earnings calendar in the United States is very light in June. It includes Zoom, Plug Power, and Adobe.

Possible Influence: US Stocks and Indices

  • U.S. Stimulus (June)

The White House and the Republicans have put forward various large spending bills that have yet to be taken up in Congress. Several of them would inject a large amount of money into infrastructure if passed. These include President Biden’s $2.3 trillion Infrastructure Proposal, the Republican’s $950 billion infrastructure proposal, and the WHite House’s suggested $6 trillion budget for 2022.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks and Indices, Global Stocks and Indices, Commodities, Currencies

  • Iranian and US negotiations on nuclear deal (Ongoing talks in June)

The US and Iran continued moves towards a potential deal which likely would see oil sanctions against Iran lifted and the return of some 1 million bpd to the market.

Possible Influence: Volatile Brent, Crude Oil prices

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