ALIBABA special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
CHINA E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.
ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
- EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 182% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 14.21, below the industry median of 26.83. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 27.78 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 67.36.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue is expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
- NEWS (January 4, 2023): Alibaba’s finance arm, Ant Financial was approved to raise $1.5 billion in capital by the Chinese regulators. Alibaba rallied nearly 13% on that news.
- EVENT (Alibaba Earnings- February 24. 2023): Alibaba is expected to post its quarterly financials. It has exceeded the consensus forecast for earnings 6 of the last 8 quarters.
- ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $134.87, according to Bloomberg. Credit Suisse set a price target of $152, Jefferies set a price target of $218, and Mizuho Securities forecast $155, all on January 5th, 2023.
- UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 210% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020).
(#ALIBABA), January 5, 2023
Current Price: 102.00
Alibaba |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
145.00 |
|
130.00 |
|
115.00 |
|
90.00 |
|
80.00 |
|
70.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Alibaba |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
43,000.00 |
28,000.00 |
13,000.00 |
-12,000.00 |
-22,000.00 |
-32,000.00 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
40,473.64 |
26,354.93 |
12,236.22 |
-11,294.97 |
-20,707.44 |
-30,119.91 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
35,746.65 |
23,276.89 |
10,807.13 |
-9,975.81 |
-18,288.98 |
-26,602.16 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
58,073.22 |
37,815.12 |
17,557.02 |
-16,206.48 |
-29,711.88 |
-43,217.28 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT) 05/01/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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