ALIBABA special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales in 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
CHINA E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (INCREASE OF ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025, TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value could be expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.
ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
- EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 182% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 13.92, below the industry median of 22.37. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 24.09 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 36.25.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue could be expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue could be expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
- EVENT (Alibaba Earnings- February 24th, 2023): Alibaba is expected to post its quarterly financials. It has exceeded the consensus forecast for earnings 6 of the last 8 quarters.
- ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $144.60, according to Bloomberg. Mizuho Securities forecast $155 on February 7th, 2023. Macquarie set a price target of $163.90 on February 6th, 2023, and Credit Suisse set a price target of $152 on February 2nd, 2023.
- UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 200% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020). However, the price could decline further.
(#ALIBABA), February 8, 2023
Current Price: 105.00
Alibaba |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
150.00 |
|
135.00 |
|
120.00 |
|
95.00 |
|
85.00 |
|
75.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Alibaba |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
45,000.00 |
30,000.00 |
15,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-30,000.00 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
41,860.47 |
27,906.98 |
13,953.49 |
-9,302.33 |
-18,604.65 |
-27,906.98 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
37,214.69 |
24,809.79 |
12,404.90 |
-8,269.93 |
-16,539.86 |
-24,809.79 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
60,196.50 |
40,131.00 |
20,065.50 |
-13,377.00 |
-26,754.00 |
-40,131.00 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:40 (GMT) 08/02/2023
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