CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THE USA/UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

• BREAKING: TRUMP PRESSING EU LEADERS TO HALT PURCHASING RUSSIAN OIL. At the Paris summit, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that 26 nations pledged post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, while U.S. President Donald Trump urged European leaders to stop buying Russian oil, arguing that the revenues finance Moscow’s war effort. The call highlights that sanctions on Russian energy remain at the core of Western strategy, with markets bracing for possible tighter enforcement. For oil, this raises the prospect of reduced supply flows from Russia and sustained upward pressure on global prices.
• BREAKING: EU PLANS SECURITY GUARANTEES, PUTIN THREATENS RESPONSE. French President Emmanuel Macron revealed that 26 nations in the “Coalition of the Willing” have pledged post-war security guarantees for Ukraine—ranging from a reassurance force by land, sea, or air to indirect training and equipment support. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any deployment of Western troops—even after a peace deal—would be considered “legitimate targets” by Moscow.

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.

RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.

TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS

• BREAKING (AUGUST 11): US PRESIDENT TRUMP EXTENDED CHINA TARIFF TRUCE FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying the reinstatement of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days, moving the deadline to mid-November 2025. The USA and China are the two largest consumers of oil and petroleum in the world, consuming together more than 30 million barrels of oil a day, which is nearly 30% of total global daily consumption.

EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):

• WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9 AT 15:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
• THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• UPTREND CHANNEL:

Crude Oil continues to trade within a rising channel that has been in place since April 2025. Recent price action shows repeated tests of the lower boundary, which continues to act as dynamic support. As long as prices remain within this channel, the broader trend bias stays constructive, with the upper boundary offering a potential resistance zone.

• SUPPORT AREA ($60–64):

The key support area between $60 and $64 has been reinforced by multiple bounces, highlighting its importance as a short-term floor. A decisive break below $60 would mark a bearish signal, potentially invalidating the channel structure and opening the way for deeper losses. On the upside, holding above this zone keeps the door open for renewed bullish momentum toward the $70–73 range near the upper boundary of the channel.

GRAPH (Daily): December 2024 – September 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Crude Oil, September 5, 2025.
Current Price: 63.00

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:55 (GMT) 5/09/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.