AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP

AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP (#AMERICAN_A) weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GLOBAL AIRLINES MARKETS:

• GLOBAL AIRLINES INDUSTRY MARKET SIZE MEASURED BY REVENUE IS AROUND $785.6B IN 2022 with recorded increase of 57.6% from 2021. As of 2022, Delta Air Lines is the largest by revenue, assets value and market capitalization, China Southern Air Holding by passengers carried and revenue passenger mile, American Airlines Group by fleet size and number of employees.
• MARKET POTENTIAL: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects a return to profitability for the global airline industry in 2023 as airlines continue to cut losses stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to their business in 2022. Airlines are expected to earn a global net profit of $4.7 billion on revenues of $779 billion. THE GLOBAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW with an annual rate of 25.5% in the next 5 years.

US AIRLINES MARKETS:

• U.S. AIRLINES MARKET SIZE BY REVENUE REACHED $144.1B in 2022 with 23.8% annual growth. Passenger volumes at U.S. airports have been about 6% higher than the same period last year, but still roughly 5% below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Transportation Security Administration. The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the busiest travel day for U.S. airports, when more than 2.5 million passengers passed through U.S. airports, the highest daily amount since Christmas 2019.
• US MARKET SHARE: As of 2022 Delta Airlines Lines is the largest US airlines company by revenue and market capitalization and accounts for 15% of the U.S. market. It is followed by Southwest airlines (15%), United Airlines (9%), American Airlines Group (6%) and Alaska Airlines (4%).

AMERICAN AIRLINES (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)

• THE COMPANY: American Airlines Group is the largest airline company in the world by the size of its fleet and the number of employees, with $8.11Bn market capitalization and 123.4K employees. It is the 4th biggest airline company in the US by market capitalization after Southwest airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines. Its primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo.
• FOURTH QUARTER EARNINGS RELEASE: JANUARY 20 (E). The company expects total Q4 revenue to be 11% to 13% higher than the comparable period in 2019 as capacity climbs to within 5% to 7% of pre-pandemic trends. The company reported for Q3 record quarterly revenue of $13.5 billion, which represents a 13% increase over the same period in 2019, despite flying 9.6% less capacity.
• American Airlines Expects 10 Million to fly on the carrier over nearly three weeks through the beginning of 2023. The company expects to operate next year at 95%-100% of the pre-pandemic capacity.
• THE COMPANY IS IMPROVING ITS EFFICIENCY: by adding more fuel efficient aircrafts to their fleet (plan to achieve a 50-million-gallon absolute reduction in jet fuel use by 2025), reducing excess weight and optimizing flight plans and procedures.
• ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Deutsche Bank has a price target of $25, Morgan Stanley target is $19 while JP Morgan targets $26.
• STOCK PRICE ACTION: American Airlines stock made its all-time high of $59.08 in January, 2018. The stock currently trades around $12.5 which is around 79% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 372%.

American Airlines Group, December 21, 2022
Current Price: 12.50

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:45 (GMT) 21/12/2022

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• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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