CHEVRON(#CHEVRON) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL OIL & GAS INDUSTRY:
- GLOBAL OIL MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH TO DATE. According to analysts, the global oil sector has grown from ~$3.0t to ~$6.8t between 2019 and March 2022. This represents a growth value of 66% over that time frame.
- THE OIL MARKET COULD GROW BY ~51% BY 2026. According to Analysts, the oil industry may grow to ~$10.3t by 2026. This represents an ~11.1% compounded annual growth rate from the 2022 levels.
THE U.S OIL & GAS MARKET:
- US OIL & GAS HAS SHOWN STRONG GROWTH: The U.S. oil and gas sector has shown strong growth. The sector’s Market Cap grew from ~$875b to ~$2.1t between June 2020 - June 2022. This represents a total growth of ~140% and a compounded annual growth of ~55%.
- SECTOR GROWTH TO CONTINUE: According to analysts, the oil and gas sector earnings may grow. Growth could be anticipated to be 11% annually over the next five years.
CHEVRON:
- THE COMPANY: Chevron is an integrated oil and gas company with operations in exploration and production, storage and pipeline transportation to refining, marketing and distribution of oil and gas products. Chevron is one of the largest companies in the world and the second largest oil company based in the United States by revenue, only behind ExxonMobil. Chevron produces almost 2 % of the world’s oil.
- EVENT: Q3 EARNINGS REPORT - October 28. Chevron beat expectations for earnings in Q2. Chevron is expected to post earnings of $5.09 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +72%. The consensus earnings estimate of $18.15 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +123.3%.
- RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. Since the beginning of the conflict, the White House has called for US shale producers, including Chevron, to increase domestic supply. Meanwhile, OPEC + decided to cut their production by 2 million barrels per day, its largest supply cut since 2020. Despite heavy global investment in renewables in the past 20 years, fossil fuels still met about 80 % of global demand.
- CHEVRON SEES OPPORTUNITY IN EUROPE. As a large natural gas producer globally the company is adjusting to a big rise in demand from Europe. Europe is determined to wean itself off Russian gas imports following its invasion of Ukraine, a move that has thrown open the door to U.S. suppliers. Chevron is also studying options to "commercialize" more gas from an Eastern Mediterranean field, off the coast of Israel, either through existing pipelines or some LNG alternatives.
- ANALYST OPINION: Morgan Stanley increased the target from $187 to $193. Piper Sandler increased its target from $189 to $190. Bloomberg target is at $180.02
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: Chevron stock made its all-time high of $182.4 in June, 2022. The stock currently trades around $162.0 which is around 11% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 12.32%.
Chevron, October 19, 2022
Current Price: 162.00
|
Chevron |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
192.00 |
|
|
185.00 |
|
|
177.00 |
|
|
148.00 |
|
|
140.00 |
|
|
135.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
30,000.00 |
23,000.00 |
15,000.00 |
-14,000.00 |
-22,000.00 |
-27,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
30,449.90 |
23,344.92 |
15,224.95 |
-14,209.95 |
-22,329.92 |
-27,404.91 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,507.27 |
20,322.24 |
13,253.63 |
-12,370.06 |
-19,438.66 |
-23,856.54 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
41,287.05 |
31,653.41 |
20,643.53 |
-19,267.29 |
-30,277.17 |
-37,158.35 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 19/10/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail