Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- ONGOING: Energy Crisis in Europe and the UK as Nat Gas continued to hit fresh all-time high. There are reports of an emerging energy crisis in China, too, due to lack of coal and natural gas to produce electricity power. India is also expected to face electricity power outages as their coal inventories run low too: Europe is facing an extreme squeeze for energy supplies, with gas and power prices breaking records day after day. The continent is running out of time to refill storage facilities before the start of the winter as flows from top suppliers Russia and Norway remain limited. The current crisis could add 500K to 650K barrels per day of demand as industries switch from natural gas to oil use.
- OIL MARKETS UNDERSUPPLIED: EXPECTED SUPPLY DEFICIT AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF 2021. An average supply deficit of about 1 million barrels a day will still persist for the rest of the year, according to OPEC+ data. The current crisis could add 500K to 650K barrels per day of demand.
- VACCINATION PROCESS EXPANDS GLOBALLY WITH 6.50 BILLION DOSES BEING ADMINISTERED SO FAR AS THE DELTA WAVE FADES. The expanding vaccination process keeps chances high that more and more countries will reopen, which could increase travelling and therefore fuel consumption could rise. This tends to support oil prices. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases have started to fall over the past two to three weeks as according to many the delta wave started to fade.
- ANALYST OPINION: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the market’s deficit was larger than expected, and raised its year-end Brent forecast by $10 to $90 a barrel (Crude oil ~$87 a barre). Citigroup Inc. said it remained “outright bullish” on crude oil as well as gas, according to a commodities outlook. Bank of America says that Brent oil could jump to $100 a barrel (Crude ~$97-98 a barrel) due to global energy crunch.
- OPEC+ MEETING (MONDAY, OCTOBER 4): Earlier this year the group agreed to start increasing their oil production by 400,000 barrels per day every month until the end of 2021. On October 4, they decided to move on with the same policy and increase their production by 400K barrels per day in November (as planned), instead of rumored 800K. This provided support to the oil prices having in mind that demand is still expected to rise in the fourth quarter. Next meeting: November 4.
Crude Oil, October 11, 2021
Current Price: 80.35
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
88.00 |
|
|
84.00 |
|
|
76.80 |
|
|
74.50 |
|
|
73.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
9,650.00 |
7,650.00 |
3,650.00 |
-3,550.00 |
-5,850.00 |
-7,350.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €** |
8,338.66 |
6,610.44 |
3,154.00 |
-3,067.59 |
-5,055.04 |
-6,351.21 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
7,072.50 |
5,606.70 |
2,675.09 |
-2,601.80 |
-4,287.47 |
-5,386.83 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
12,015.41 |
9,525.17 |
4,544.69 |
-4,420.18 |
-7,283.95 |
-9,151.63 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:14 (GMT+1) 11/10/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details