Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
SUPPLY EXPECTATION:
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BREAKING NEWS (March 7) FRENCH REFINERIES ARE BLOCKED DUE TO STRIKE. Fuel deliveries in main French refineries are stopped for next 48 hours on strike. Refinery Gravenchon in Port Jerome in France has a capacity of 230,000 bpd of crude and 17,000bpd of lubricant.
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Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude inventories saw their first decline last week after 10 straight weeks of builds.(March 7) The report showed a 3.835M decline despite expected increase.
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EVENT (MARCH 6) Saudi Arabia signaled it sees oil demand picking up in Asia and Europe by raising most prices for crude shipments to the region.
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EVENT (MARCH 1): RUSSIA START CUTTING THEIR OIL PRODUCTION BY 500,000 BARRELS IN MARCH. Russia cited ongoing sanctions as the main reason why they would reduce oil production. The International Energy Agency still believes that Russia may have to cut oil production by 1-2 million.
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EVENT (FEBRUARY 5, 2023): EU BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCT (DIESEL, NAPHTHA) IMPORTS STARTED TAKING PLACE. The EU has already banned 90% crude oil imports from Russia on December 5, 2022. In addition, the US and their allies. The European Commission agreed that from Feb. 5 the EU should apply a price cap of $100 (Currently moves between $90 and $113) per barrel on premium Russian oil products such as diesel and a $45 cap per barrel on discounted products such as fuel oil.
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EVENT (DECEMBER 5, 2022): G-7 GROUP AND THE E.U. PRICE CAP ($60) HAS STARTED TAKING PLACE: The G7 (Group of Seven) consists of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. The introduction of a price cap on Russian oil means countries that sign up to the policy will only be permitted to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products transported via sea that are sold at or below the price cap ($60 a barrel).
DEMAND EXPECTATIONS:
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CHINA REOPENING HAS STARTED (JANUARY 8, 2023): Travel inside China surged 74% from last year after authorities scrapped COVID-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, Gasoline consumption increased by 20% from a year ago, with record flows of cars on the nation’s highways. China is the largest oil importer in the world (importing more than 11 million barrels a day) and the second largest oil consumer in the world (expected to consume a record 16 million barrels a day in 2023).
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CHINA’S FACTORY ACTIVITY HAD THE FASTEST GROWTH IN MORE THAN 10 YEARS IN FEBRUARY. According to Saudi Aramco, China's demand for oil is very strong while there is an excellent demand in the US and Europe as well. Saudi Aramco is expected to raise Oil Selling Prices in April due to expectations for higher demand.
ANALYST OPINION:
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JPMorgan forecasts $90 in 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts $100 by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley Price Target stands at $100 in 2023. UBS forecasts $107 a barrel. Commerzbank targets $100 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $104 a barrel. Deutsche Bank forecasts $100.
DOWNWARD PRESSURE:
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US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES (SPR) TO REFILL AT $68 - $72. The Biden administration said they will start buying crude to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve when prices fall to the range between $68- $72 per barrel. President Biden ordered the release of a total of 180 million barrels of crude this year in response to a price rally caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Arabia, de facto OPEC leader, maintains a fiscal breakeven oil price of around $80 a barrel.
Crude Oil, March 8, 2023
Current Price: 77.23
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
82.00 |
|
|
73.00 |
|
|
72.50 |
|
|
70.50 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
22,770.00 |
12,770.00 |
4,770.00 |
-4,230.00 |
-4,730.00 |
-6,730.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
21,593.07 |
12,109.95 |
4,523.45 |
-4,011.36 |
-4,485.52 |
-6,382.14 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
19,238.57 |
10,789.48 |
4,030.21 |
-3,573.96 |
-3,996.42 |
-5,686.23 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
31,321.16 |
17,565.71 |
6,561.35 |
-5,818.56 |
-6,506.33 |
-9,257.42 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT) 08/03/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail