GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE AS NO CONCRETE DEALS HAVE BEEN MADE. The latest round of talks between the US and Iran has ended in Oman with no concrete agreements. Iran is still insisting on continuing its uranium enrichment program.
- U.S.A. WITHDRAWAL FROM UKRAINE - RUSSIA PEACE NEGOTIATIONS: President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
CENTRAL BANKS INCREASE GOLD RESERVES:
- CHINA GOLD RESERVES UP TO 73.77 MILLION OUNCES IN APRIL: China has managed to increase its gold reserves from 73.70 million ounces in March to a new, 73.77 million ounces in April. This is their sixth consecutive increase of gold reserves on a monthly basis.
- CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY HAVE BEEN INCREASING GOLD RESERVES MUCH FASTER SINE 2021: Recent statistics from the World Gold Council have shown that Central Banks have been increasing their gold reserves by a total around 1,000 tons annually since 2021. This is up more than 100% compared to the ten-year average of around 350 tons in the period before 2021. Central Banks have continued increasing their gold reserves in 2025 as well.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, MAY 13, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US CONSUMER PRICE DATA (CPI) (APRIL): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for gold, as it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. The CPI Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer.
- THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (APRIL): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for the gold price because it could point to more future rate cuts by the FED. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- J.P. MORGAN HAS A PRICE TARGET OF $3,675 (2025). Prices in 2026, by Q2, could rise to $4000; however, they could move in the opposite direction. By the end of Trump’s term, J.P. MORGAN anticipates gold to climb to $6000.
- GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED THE GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,700, FROM $3,300, WITH A TARGET RANGE OF $3,650 AND $3,950. UNDER EXTREME SCENARIOS, GOLD COULD RISE TO $4,500 BY THE END OF 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,500 FROM $3,200. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- DEUTSCHE BANK HAS RAISED ITS GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,350 (Q4 2025) AND $3,700 (2026).
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- NEAR-TERM SUPPORT AREA BETWEEN $3,270 AND $3,200. Gold has tested the area between $3,270 and $3,200 several times since mid-April. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- GOLD HIT A FRESH ALL TIME HIGH OF $3,499.76 (April 22, 2025). Gold has traded around $3,220, and if a full recovery takes place, Gold could rise around $280. Although the price could decline as well.
GRAPH (H4): April 4, 2025 – May 12, 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GOLD, May 12, 2025
Current Price: 3,220
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,500 |
|
|
3,300 |
|
|
3,150 |
|
|
3,125 |
|
|
3,100 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
48,000 |
28,000 |
8,000 |
-7,000 |
-9,500 |
-12,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
43,113 |
25,149 |
7,186 |
-6,287 |
-8,533 |
-10,778 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
36,382 |
21,223 |
6,064 |
-5,306 |
-7,201 |
-9,095 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
67,026 |
39,098 |
11,171 |
-9,775 |
-13,266 |
-16,756 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 12/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.