Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- PRESIDENT OF THE U.S. DECLARED CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL. (June 23, 2025); Donald Trump announced what he called a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. The plan was structured in phases: Iran was to halt all hostilities at 20:00 GMT, with Israel expected to follow 12 hours later. After 24 hours, the so-called “12-Day War” would be officially over. Trump described the ceasefire as “unlimited,” but notably, there was no signed or publicly confirmed agreement between the two sides.
- IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS. Despite the formal announcement, hostilities resumed almost immediately. Israeli airstrikes targeted locations deep inside central Iran, while Iran launched missiles toward Tel Aviv and Be’er Sheva. Iranian officials claimed they honored the agreed-upon ceasefire window; however, Israel has not publicly acknowledged any adherence to the timeline. This has raised doubts about the durability of the truce from the outset.
- STRAIT OF HORMUZ THREATS. One of the most alarming developments came from Tehran, where Iran’s parliament voted to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz. Although the closure has not been enforced, the mere possibility of it has already rattled markets and pushed crude oil futures into a volatile state.
- THE MIDDLE EAST REGION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT OIL SUPPLY VEIN IN THE WORLD, RESPONSIBLE FOR AT LEAST 20% OF THE TOTAL SUPPLY. A full-scale war in the Middle East could threaten 5–15% of global output. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for nearly 20% of the world’s crude, lies at the heart of this risk. Any disruption there would have far more severe implications for energy markets than the shock seen in 2022 (Russia-Ukraine War).
SCENARIOS ANALYSIS: POTENTIAL OIL PRICE REACTIONS TO MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Holds – Stabilization Scenario. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran proves durable, with no major violations. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted. Geopolitical risk premium fades. Markets price in de-escalation, returning focus to fundamentals like U.S. stockpiles and OPEC+ supply policy. Estimated Price Range: $60–$65 per barrel (Source: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan)
Scenario 2: Ceasefire Breached – Localized Escalation. Hostilities resume with sporadic missile attacks or proxy activity (e.g., in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq), but without direct strikes on oil infrastructure. U.S. and Gulf mediation prevents wider war, and Hormuz stays open. Risk premium returns, volatility increases, but supply disruption remains limited. Estimated Price Range: $70–$85 per barrel (Source: Citi, Barclays)
Scenario 3: Major Escalation – Major Escalation and Hormuz Disruption Scenario. Iran responds to perceived provocation with military closure—or credible threat—of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially mining the waters or targeting tankers. U.S. naval intervention follows. Regional oil infrastructure (e.g., in the UAE or Saudi Arabia) comes under threat. Immediate panic in energy markets will appear as even a short-term disruption would send shockwaves through supply chains. Estimated Price Range: $105–$120+ per barrel (Source: Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi)
EVENTS (OIL):
- WEDNESDAY, June 25 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- TUESDAY, JULY 1 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE (API) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
Crude Oil, June 25, 2025
Current Price: 65.0
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
80.0 |
|
|
75.0 |
|
|
69.0 |
|
|
61.0 |
|
|
59.0 |
|
|
57.0 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,000 |
10,000 |
4,000 |
-4,000 |
-6,000 |
-8,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
12,919 |
8,613 |
3,445 |
-3,445 |
-5,168 |
-6,890 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
11,028 |
7,352 |
2,941 |
-2,941 |
-4,411 |
-5,881 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
20,572 |
13,715 |
5,486 |
-5,486 |
-8,229 |
-10,972 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:10 (GMT) 25/06/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.