GASOLINE

GASOLINE weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS:

• The PRESIDENT OF THE U.S. DECLARED A CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL. (June 23, 2025) Donald Trump announced what he called a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. The plan was structured in phases: Iran was to halt all hostilities at 20:00 GMT, with Israel expected to follow 12 hours later. After 24 hours, the so-called “12-Day War” would be officially over. Trump described the ceasefire as “unlimited,” but notably, there was no signed or publicly confirmed agreement between the two sides.
• IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS. Despite the formal announcement, hostilities resumed almost immediately. Israeli airstrikes targeted locations deep inside central Iran, while Iran launched missiles toward Tel Aviv and Be’er Sheva. Iranian officials claimed they honored the agreed-upon ceasefire window; however, Israel has not publicly acknowledged any adherence to the timeline. This has raised doubts about the durability of the truce from the outset.

US DRIVING SEASON

• PERIOD: MEMORIAL DAY TO LABOUR DAY IN THE USA (MAY 26 TO SEPTEMBER 2). Usually, that time period of the year sees higher oil and petroleum consumption and demand, and more and more people in the US travel around. The period usually sees declining gasoline inventories in the US, due to higher consumption, signaling rising demand. This usually bodes well for gasoline prices, although prices could go in the opposite direction, as well.

EVENTS

• WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL AND GASOLINE INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the gasoline price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
• TUESDAY, JULY 1 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE (API) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

SCENARIOS ANALYSIS: POTENTIAL OIL AND GASOLINE PRICE REACTIONS TO MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS

• Potential Scenario 1: Ceasefire Holds – Stabilization Scenario. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran proves durable, with no major violations. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted. Geopolitical risk premium fades. Markets price in de-escalation, returning focus to fundamentals like U.S. stockpiles and OPEC+ supply policy. (Source: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan)

• Potential Scenario 2: Ceasefire Breached – Localized Escalation. Hostilities resume with sporadic missile attacks or proxy activity (e.g., in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq), but without direct strikes on oil infrastructure. U.S. and Gulf mediation prevents wider war, and Hormuz stays open. Risk premium returns, volatility increases, but supply disruption remains limited. (Source: Citi, Barclays)
  
  

• Potential Scenario 3: Major Escalation – Major Escalation and Hormuz Disruption Scenario. Iran responds to perceived provocation with military closure—or credible threat—of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially mining the waters or targeting tankers. U.S. naval intervention follows. Regional oil infrastructure (e.g., in the UAE or Saudi Arabia) comes under threat. Immediate panic in energy markets could appear as even a short-term disruption could send shockwaves through supply chains.

GASOLINE June 25, 2025
Current Price: 2.0900

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:50 (GMT+1) 25/06/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.