Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- UPTREND CHANNEL: Crude oil continues to trade above a well-established ascending trendline (black line) that has held since late March 2025. The trendline has been tested multiple times, most recently in mid-July, and acted as a springboard for the latest upward move. As long as this support remains intact, the broader uptrend remains in play.
- MOVING AVERAGES SUPPORT TREND: The 20-day (red) and 50-day (blue) moving averages have both turned higher, indicating strengthening short-term momentum. Price has decisively broken above all key moving averages, including the 100-day (green), indication a positive sentiment.
GRAPH (Daily): March 2025 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS
- US TARIFF DEADLINE EXTENDED TO AUGUST 1 FROM THE PREVIOUS JULY 9. The US is still expected to announce more deals after clinching deals with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and the E.U.. Next on the list could be Japan, the E.U., India, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, where announcements are expected to be made by August 1.
- BREAKING (JULY 27): U.S. AND E.U. ANNOUNCED A TRADE AGREEMENT.
- BREAKING (JULY 23): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED A TRADE DEAL WITH JAPAN.
- BREAKING (JULY 15): U.S. AND INDONESIA REACHED A TRADE DEAL. President Donald Trump said the United States has struck a trade deal with Indonesia. The agreement includes a 19% U.S. tariff on Indonesian goods.
- BREAKING (MAY 8): U.S. AND U.K. ANNOUNCED A TRADE DEAL ON MAY 8. President Trump said this is the first of many to follow.
GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA
- EVENT (EXPECTED BY AUGUST 10, 2025): US PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL SLAP NEW SANCTIONS AND SECONDARY TARIFFS ON RUSSIA AND ITS OIL IF NO CEASEFIRE DEAL REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT 10 TO 12 DAYS (EXPECTED BY AUGUST 10, 2025). According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump set a new deadline of 10 to 12 days (down from the previous 50-day deadline set on July 14) for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face consequences. Trump has threatened sanctions on both Russia and buyers of its oil unless progress is made. Trump reiterated that, without a deal, his administration would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian oil.
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, JULY 30 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- SUNDAY, AUGUST 3: OPEC+ EIGHT MEMBERS (V8) (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) MEETING. The V8 OPEC+ countries are expected to decide on September oil production levels. Last time in July they decided to increase production levels in August, indicating that September’s eventual production increase could be the last in the current cycle of production increases that has begun in April 2025.
Crude Oil, July 30, 2025.
Current Price: 68.80
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
78.00 |
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
72.00 |
|
|
66.50 |
|
|
65.50 |
|
|
64.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
9,200 |
6,200 |
3,200 |
-2,300 |
-3,300 |
-4,300 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
7,961 |
5,365 |
2,769 |
-1,990 |
-2,856 |
-3,721 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
6,885 |
4,640 |
2,395 |
-1,721 |
-2,470 |
-3,218 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
12,670 |
8,538 |
4,407 |
-3,167 |
-4,545 |
-5,922 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 30/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.