Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• SUPPORT AREA: $64.50 - $60.00. Crude oil prices have developed support area between $64.50 and $60.00, which has been in place since mid-April 2025.
• 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGE: The crude oil prices have remained above the mid-term daily moving average (100-day moving average), pointing to ongoing positive sentiment. Although the sentiment could change should oil prices fall below the 100-day moving averages.

GRAPH (Daily): April 2025 – August 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS

• EVENT (TUESDAY, AUGUST 12): US PRESIDENT TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO APPROVE 90-DAY TRUCE EXTENSION AFTER AUGUST 12. U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up constructive trade talks in Stockholm and are expected to extend their 90-day tariff truce beyond the August 12 deadline. This is supportive for palladium demand, as easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies boosts automotive production outlook, palladium’s key demand driver. A continued truce would help sustain positive sentiment and upside momentum in palladium prices.
• US TRADE DEALS TO BE NEGOTIATED AFTER AUGUST 1. The US is still expected to announce more deals after clinching deals with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, the EU, Japan and South Korea. Next on the list could be India, Canada, Mexico, and China, where announcements are expected to be made after August 1.

GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA

• EVENT (FRIDAY, AUGUST 8): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP THREATENED 100% TARIFFS ON RUSSIAN GOODS AND 100% SECONDARY TARIFFS FOR COUNTRIES THAT BUY RUSSIAN OIL IF NO CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH UKRAINE IS REACHED BY FRIDAY, AUGUST 8. According to Reuters, Trump gave the Russian president a new deadline to make peace or face 100% tariffs on Russian goods, and more importantly, 100% sweeping secondary tariffs, implying that trade sanctions would be imposed on countries that continue importing Russian oil and other commodities.

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or near 10 million barrels a day.

RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports of around 5 million barrels a day represent around 5% of total global consumption.

• BREAKING (JULY 30): US PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED AN UNSPECIFIED “PENALTY” ON INDIA FOR TRADE WITH RUSSIA. India bought around 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia in June, worth around $4 billion. On an annual basis, on average, this would be equal to near $47 billion. In addition, this would be around 40% of total Russia exports. Latest data also showed that Russia’s oil supplies represent 45% of total oil imports in India.

EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):

• TUESDAY, AUGUST 5 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE (API) WEEKLY OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
• WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 6 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

Crude Oil, August 4, 2025.
Current Price: 65.70

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:10 (GMT+1) 04/08/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.