Crude Oil

CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THE USA/UKRAINE, AND RUSSIA

• BREAKING: POTENTIAL RUSSIA’S PUTIN – UKRAINIAN ZELENSKY SUMMIT UNDER QUESTION AS SECURITY GUARANTEES TO UKRAINE NOT DEFINED YET. Despite recent Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelensky- EU Leaders summits, separately, talks over a potential peace deal have not been fully fruitful, as many questions remain unanswered. The longer these negotiations drag on and the more complicated they become, the more supportive they could be for commodities such as crude oil, as Russian supply remains restricted.
• US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA AND ITS TRADE PARTNERS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE IF NO PEACE DEAL IS REACHED. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened severe consequences if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace. Trump did not specify what the consequences could be, but he has warned of economic sanctions if his meeting with Putin in Alaska on Friday proves fruitless.

BREAKING (AUGUST 6): US PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED EXTRA 25% TARIFFS ON INDIA OVER OIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA TO MAKE IT TOTAL 50%. India bought around 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia in June. In addition, this would be around 40% of total Russian exports. Latest data also showed that Russia’s oil supplies represent 45% of total oil imports in India. Meanwhile, India said it will continue importing oil from Russia.

BREAKING (AUGUST 6): US PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENED EXTRA 25% TARIFFS ON CHINA OVER OIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA.

RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.

RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.

TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS

• BREAKING (AUGUST 11): US PRESIDENT TRUMP EXTENDED CHINA TARIFF TRUCE FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying the reinstatement of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional 90 days, moving the deadline to mid-November 2025. The USA and China are the two largest consumers of oil and petroleum in the world, consuming together more than 30 million barrels of oil a day, which is nearly 30% of total global daily consumption.

EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):

• WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE TESTED THE LOWEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN TWO MONTHS ($61.265): Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest in more than two months, testing levels not seen since late May 2025.
• LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA AT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL MARK OF $60: Crude oil prices have recently tested levels near $60, which has been acting as a support area since early 2021.
• STATISTICS (2021-2025): CRUDE OIL PRICES TEND TO RECOVER AFTER TESTING THE AREA NEAR THE MARK OF $60. Crude oil prices have approached the area near $60 in total seven times since early 2021. According to the daily chart below, after testing levels near $60, crude oil prices tend to recover towards the area between $70 and $75. Although prices could fall, too.

GRAPH (Daily): January 2021 – August 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Crude Oil, August 21, 2025.
Current Price: 63.30

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:35 (GMT) 21/08/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.