Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 16): CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED ITS LOWEST RATE SINCE FEBRUARY 2025 ($54.865). The crude oil price has tested its lowest rate since February 2025. Currently, crude oil is trading above the $55 mark, which is its long-term support.
- TECHNICAL SUPPORT: $55. According to the daily chart below, crude oil has tested levels near $55 four times since 2021.
GRAPH (Weekly): March 2021 – January 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
BREAK-EVEN OIL PRICE ANALYSIS (NEW WELLS AND EXISTING WELLS): U.S.A.
- AVERAGE PRICE FOR FIRMS TO BE PROFITABLE (DRILLING NEW WELLS): $65. This is the average price of oil for oil producers to be profitable when drilling new oil wells.
- AVERAGE PRICE FOR FIRMS TO BE PROFITABLE (EXISTING WELLS): $41. This is the average price of oil for oil producers to be profitable, maintaining existing oil wells.
- AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PRICE (NEW AND EXISTING WELLS): $53. This is the average price of oil for oil producers to be profitable when drilling new oil wells and maintaining existing oil wells.
Source: dallasfed.org
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ESCALATE: SUPPLY DISRUPTION FEARS RISE
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE: 13TH DAY OF IRANIAN PROTESTS AND SECURITY SITUATION DETERIORATES (January 9). Iran is a member of OPEC and is the third-largest oil producer within the cartel after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran continued to face protests against the regime, spreading nationwide and turning increasingly violent, with at least 34 deaths and more than 2,000 arrests reported so far. Demonstrators have seized control of at least two cities in Iran’s Kurdish province, after security forces reportedly withdrew.
- VENEZUELA TENSIONS RISE: US ARMY ATTACKS VENEZUELA WITH AIRSTRIKES, CAPTURING VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT MADURO (January 3). According to Reuters, after a coordinated land and air strike, the US military captured President Maduro. US President Trump has threatened harsh punishments for the new interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, if compliance with the U.S. is ignored.
- RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: UKRAINIAN DRONES HIT A RUSSIAN OIL TANKER NEAR TURKEY; RUSSIA’S ORESHNIK HIT LVIV (UKRAINE), NEAR POLAND. The empty 274-meter-long Elbus oil tanker was on its way to pick up oil in the Russian port of Novorossiysk when it was hit 30 miles off Turkey’s Black Sea coast on January 8.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 13 AT 21:30 GMT: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14 AT 15:30 GMT: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
Crude Oil, January 9, 2026
Current Price: 58.00
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
65.00 |
|
|
63.00 |
|
|
61.00 |
|
|
55.50 |
|
|
55.25 |
|
|
55.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,000 |
5,000 |
3,000 |
-2,500 |
-2,750 |
-3,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
6,012 |
4,294 |
2,577 |
-2,147 |
-2,362 |
-2,577 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
5,220 |
3,728 |
2,237 |
-1,864 |
-2,051 |
-2,237 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
9,709 |
6,935 |
4,161 |
-3,467 |
-3,814 |
-4,161 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 09/01/2026
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.