EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEGUN
- BREAKING (MONDAY, MAY 12): U.S. AND CHINA AGREED TO REDUCE TARIFFS ON EACH OTHER FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS. United States cuts tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days. China lowers tariffs from 125% to 10% for all US products next 90 days.
- NEWS (APRIL 9): US PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDED THEIR RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE REST OF THE WORLD BY 90 DAYS. For the next 90 days, the US will charge countries that are part of the reciprocal tariff plan only 10%, compared to the range of up to 84% previously planned, as it gives time and space for other countries to begin and reach new trade deals with the USA.
- E.U. – U.S. TRADE TALKS EXPECTED SOON. The US have already clinched a deal with the UK, and 25 more deals are near to be reached. The E.U. and the U.S. are expected to begin soon their own trade talks, and a deal is expected dot be reach by early July 2025.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
- THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (Monthly) (APRIL): U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March with 1.4% increase vs 1.3% expected. If the results come in line with expectations or weaker, we could see a positive impact on platinum prices due to a potentially weaker U.S. dollar. But the opposite scenario is also possible.
- THURSDAY, MAY 15 AT 13:40 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR JEROME POWELL SPEAKS. Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for any signals on the future path of interest rates. If Powell adopts a more dovish tone, highlighting easing inflation and potential economic slowdown, it could boost expectations for rate cuts later this year.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2025 to slash its benchmark rate to 3.9% by the end of 2025. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.40% in 2026 and further down to 3.10% in 2027.
US INFALTION CNTINUED TO FALL: US inflation (CPI) for the month of April, came in at 2.3%, its lowest rate since February 2021. April data came in lower than the expected 2.4% and lower than the one in March (2.4%). Falling inflation could encourage the Fed to consider resuming its interest rate cut cycle in 2025. - NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: June 18, 2025. Markets have recently raised their expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2025, which could eventually bring rates down to 3.75% from the current 4.5% (Source: CMEGROUP.COM).
EURUSD, May 14, 2025
Current Price: 1.1250
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1700 |
|
|
1.1420 |
|
|
1.1090 |
|
|
1.1050 |
|
|
1.1000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,500 |
4,500 |
1,700 |
-1,600 |
-2,000 |
-2,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
6,661 |
3,996 |
1,510 |
-1,421 |
-1,776 |
-2,220 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
5,618 |
3,371 |
1,273 |
-1,198 |
-1,498 |
-1,873 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
10,428 |
6,257 |
2,364 |
-2,225 |
-2,781 |
-3,476 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 14/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.