EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS
- BREAKING (TUESDAY, AUGUST 12): U.S. – CHINA TRADE AND TARIFF DEAL HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER. The USA and China are the two largest destinations for German exports. In total, the US economy takes in around 11% of total German exports, while China’s economy takes in around 6% of total German exports, which amounted to around $1.7 Trillion.
- BREAKING (JULY 27): E.U. AND U.S. ANNOUNCED A TRADE DEAL TO DE-ESCALATE TRADE TENSIONS. According to Reuters, the U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods (half the threatened rate of 30%) and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade.
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA- UKRAINE/USA
- EVENT (FRIDAY, AUGUST 15, 2025): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN MEETING IN ALASKA, USA. The US and Russia have agreed to hold a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday (August 15), to discuss ways forward to end the war in Ukraine, marking the first high-level bilateral talks since Trump returned to office.
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, AUGUST 15 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (JULY). A lower than expected reading could prove positive for the EUR/USD, because it could motivate the FED to cut interest rates to stimulate economic activity. This data measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The number for the previous month (June) stood at 3.92%.
- WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 22 AT 07:00 GMT+1: GERMAN GDP (Q2). Germany will release its Q2 GDP data, with the previous figure at +0.4%. A better-than-expected result would signal solid economic momentum and could lift the EUR, especially as investors look for confirmation that domestic demand and industrial output are recovering.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. After some weaker-than-expected employment market data in July and downward revisions to June figures, markets have increased their expectations for an interest rate cut in September, expected to be followed by another in December. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, and according to market expectations, it is expected to decline to 4% by the end of 2025. This could put negative pressure on the US dollar, and in turn support the EUR/USD currency pair.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND CHANNEL: The black trend lines depicted by the chart below show that EUR/USD prices have maintained their uptrend in general since January 2025. However, the price could decline.
- 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGE (MA): EUR/USD has recently returned above its 100-Day Moving Average, confirming that positive sentiment continues to prevail, which has been in place since January 2025. However, EUR/USD could change its trend if prices fall back below the 100-Day Moving Average.
GRAPH (Daily): December 2024 – August 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, August 13, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1700
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1900 |
|
|
1.1800 |
|
|
1.1610 |
|
|
1.1570 |
|
|
1.1540 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
3,000 |
2,000 |
1,000 |
-900 |
-1,300 |
-1,600 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
2,560 |
1,707 |
853 |
-768 |
-1,109 |
-1,366 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
2,212 |
1,475 |
737 |
-664 |
-959 |
-1,180 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
4,128 |
2,752 |
1,376 |
-1,238 |
-1,789 |
-2,201 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 13/08/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.