EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (AUGUST). This index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The inflation rate for the previous month (July) came in at 2.7%. A lower-than-expected inflation reading could increase the odds of higher interest rate cuts by the FED in September or increase the odds of more interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. This could put further pressure on the US dollar.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:15 GMT+1: THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.15%. Euro zone inflation edged up to 2.1% in August, just above the target of 2%.
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. After some weaker-than-expected employment market data in July and August, markets are expecting an almost certain interest rate cut by the FED in September, with some analysts projecting a 0.50% points interest rate cut in September, with more cuts by the end of 2025. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, and according to market expectations, at least two more interest rate cuts could happen by the end of 2025, with a third one remaining a possibility.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND CHANNEL: EUR/USD continues to trade within a well-defined upward channel since early 2025. Consolidation is evident in recent weeks, but the broader trend remains positive as long as the price holds above the lower boundary of the channel.
- KEY MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORTS: EUR/USD is holding above both the 20-day (red) and 100-day (green) moving averages (MA). The 100-day MA continues to provide broader trend support, while the flattening 20-day MA signals consolidation. Staying above both averages keeps sentiment constructive, with a breakout pointing to renewed upside momentum.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan forecasts 1.20 by the end of 2025 and 1.22 in early 2026.
GRAPH (Daily): December 2024– September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, September 8, 2025.
Current Price: 1.17100
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2200 |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1830 |
|
|
1.1600 |
|
|
1.1560 |
|
|
1.1540 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
4,900 |
2,900 |
1,200 |
-1,100 |
-1,500 |
-1,700 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,181 |
2,474 |
1,024 |
-939 |
-1,280 |
-1,451 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
3,628 |
2,147 |
888 |
-814 |
-1,111 |
-1,259 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
6,768 |
4,006 |
1,658 |
-1,519 |
-2,072 |
-2,348 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:50(GMT+1) 08/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit