EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND: Since January 2025, EUR/USD has been moving in a steady rising trend, supported by the blue trendline that slopes higher. The pair is currently trading close to this line, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact despite some recent sideways movement. However, the trend could change direction
- KEY MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORTS: The 200-day moving average (red) is trending higher and remains below the current price. This alignment with the trendline confirms that the broader trend is still firm. As long as the currency pair stays above both supports, the overall outlook remains positive. However, the trend could change direction.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.20 by end-2025 and 1.22 in early 2026. UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026, Bank of America forecasts 1.20 by year-end 2025 and 1.25 during 2026, while Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025– November 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USA: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENTERED ITS 34TH DAY (October 28, 2025)
- BREAKING (WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 05:00 AM GMT+1): US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BEGAN WITH NO DEAL IN SIGHT. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents made no progress in ending the government shutdown. Without passage of funding legislation, parts of the government have remained closed since Wednesday (October 1).
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5 AT 13:15 GMT: US ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, so the US government shutdown is not affecting it. In September, the report showed a decrease of 32,000, below expectations of 52,000 and August’s -3,000. A lower-than-expected reading could be taken as negative for the USD as signs of a softer labor market increase the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, though the opposite scenario is also possible.
- FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14 AT 10:00 GMT: GDP IN EUROZONE (Q3). A report published in October showed 0.2% increase in the third quarter which was above expected 0.1% increase quarter on quarter and 1.3% increase compared to the same period a year ago. If the positive trend continues and fresh data show another increase, this could have a positive effect on the euro. However, the opposite scenario is also possible.
EURUSD, November 3, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1518
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.1870 |
|
|
1.1700 |
|
|
1.1650 |
|
|
1.1400 |
|
|
1.1350 |
|
|
1.1300 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
3,520 |
1,820 |
1,320 |
-1,180 |
-1,680 |
-2,180 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
3,058 |
1,581 |
1,147 |
-1,025 |
-1,459 |
-1,894 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
2,680 |
1,386 |
1,005 |
-898 |
-1,279 |
-1,660 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
4,570 |
2,363 |
1,714 |
-1,532 |
-2,181 |
-2,830 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:30 (GMT) 03/11/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit